Derby Trail Forums - 10/11: Keeneland ($65k P5 C/O)

Keeneland continued to prove hard to pin down Wednesday as $50 and $92 winners in the 5th and 7th tripped monster mutuels and a $65k P5 carryover into Thursday. It is never a surprise that these hard to use horses win on the synthetic, but interestingly, the pair of pricey players came in the 2 divisions of $30k/N2L sprints. 24-1 Getaway Spot, exiting a $25k MCLM win at Ellis, was making her first synthetic start and needed to improve to contend. It should be noted that even money favorite Phychadelic went bad in the race. In the 7th, Miss Bellamy Lane should not have been 45-1 off her 15-1 ML, but you needed to believe she was going to reverse form from dreadful September tries at Presque Isle. And even her best races in July and August only made her a fringe type. The elusiveness of these winners is a bit maddening so far at Keeneland since it feels like faves come through when you reach for longshots and longshots jump up when you think the logicals appear best. The good news is that when you get it to come together, you're going to be handsomely rewarded: The late P4 paid $24,342!

Last 'Win/In" Breeders' Cup race today at Keeneland as a wide open field of 2yo fillies grapple in the Jessamine...

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

$65k P5 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #12 Geothermal 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Tetradrachm 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Cantonic 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Benergy 12-1 9th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Firsters save for the 1, 3 & 10. Taking clues from trainer stats and breeding/sib strength..

Best Value: #2 Lady Stonewall 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Crazy Lucky 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Cor Cor 8-1 WON ($20.80)
Super Add: #1 Gigglin' Gal 5-1 6th

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Keep Up 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Ever So Lucky 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Scatman 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #1 In the Beat 20-1 6th

8th: 22nd Jessamine (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Wide open. Note that the last 3 winners of this all were exiting Saratoga (House of Grace, Kathmanblu) or Belmont (Somali Lemonade) runs. Those successes were authored from off the pace and not since Laragh in 2008 has this been annexed on the front end..

Most Likely: #8 Always Kitten 7-2 10th
Next Best: #6 Oscar Party 6-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Hedonemewrongsong 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Summer of Fun 6-1 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Citi Point 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Glamour Puss 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Fleet Classic 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Tightly Wound 3-1 7th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 2-12
6: 2-6-9
7: 1-2-7-10-12
8: 8
9: 2-5-10-12

2x3x5x1x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

<$100 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-9
7: 1-2-7-10-12
8: 6-8-9
9: 2-5-10-12

3x5x3x4 = 180 x .50 = $90

Good luck!
Steve