Derby Trail Forums - 10/12: Belmont Park ($20k C/O); Keeneland (P5/P4)

Another wild day at Keeneland Thursday was punctuated by a 4 filly blanket finish in the G3 Jessamine that favored crazily overlaid B. Wayne Hughes homebred Moonwalk when the photograph was developed. 12-1 going in, the Dale Romans trainee got away from the gate at 36-1 and was part of a group of 5 missies that dawdled through the first three quarters in :23.4, :49.2 and a torpid 1:15.1. Summer of Fun, Oscar Party and Sunset Time all had their chances under the crawling scenario, while Kitten's Point and Hedonemewrongsong were the closers who did their utmost to get involved.

Earlier, the big P5 carryover pool party got a $22.40 boost as a real pace at 8.5f opened the door for Positive Side who was making his first start under Grant Forster's care. I needed runner up Tetradrachm to get by the winner, but new dad Miguel Mena was too late arriving on the scene. The first time starters were the right call in the MSW 6th, as Cor Cor, Lady Stonewall and Crazy Lucky came together to produce a handsome $310 tri. Similarly in the 7th, Scatman, Ever So Lucky and Keep Up tripped a $100 triple despite being the 2nd, 1st and 4th choices respectively. All my own multis were derailed by Moonwalk in the feature, but one Twin Spires player took down the entire P5 of $266,430 when Cataract Canyon and Jimmy Graham nosed FTS Glamour Puss in the finale.

Fun afternoon and I hope everyone did well.. Weekend action gets going early Friday with good sequences in NY ($20k P6 C/O) and KY..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Weird group. Not sure where the pace is coming from here..

Best Value: #9 Evan's Rocket 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Tapitude 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Victoryat Last 4-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Here's Zealicious 6-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Tucker's Point will be a single for many, but he does come back pretty quick from the big effort and Cape Glory, Mordi's Miracle, Last Gunfighter and even perrenial maiden Invocation are well within striking range..

Most Likely: #2 Tucker's Point 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #7 Last Gunfighter 5-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #1 Mordi's Miracle 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Cape Glory 3-1 6th

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Seven of these (1-3-5-8-9-11-12) are within a length or two of each other. Tough lawn dash. #1 Desert Bliss is 0/13 but gets Ramon and a pace to close into. #14 (AE) Talmadge Hill would embraceable should she somehow get in..

Most Likely: #1 Desert Bliss 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Jennys Creek 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Fast and Strong 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Notesfromabroad 5-1 11th

7th: Rob 'n Gin, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Rob 'n Gin was best at a mile or 8.5 on the lawn, but it's still nice to seem his name on a race. Trained by Bobby Barbara for Sabine, the son of Farma Way was a game pacesetting type made close to $1,000,000 winning stakes at 3, 4 and 5 including the Jersey Derby, Hall of Fame, PA Governor's Cup, KY Cup Mile and Poker. He came within an eyelash of being a G1 winner when losing a photo in the '99 Atto Mile in one of his final career starts..

Best Value: #3 BEAU CHOIX 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #2 Boots Ahead 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Surfrider 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Upgrade 3-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Arc Above 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Presumptive 5-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Solitaire 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Carson Hall 10-1 4th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T

Super contentious finish to the sequences. Yeesh. No less than eight (1-2-3-6-8-9-10-11) appear capable..

Most Likely: #10 To the Point 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Mizzen Donald 10-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Must Be Love 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Vinda 15-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 7-9
5: 1-2-5-7
6: 1-3-9
7: 3
8: 3-8-11
9: 9

2x4x3x1x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-9-11
7: 2-3-4
8: 1-3-8-11
9: 2-9-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

<$75 P5 &/or P4 Play:

6: 3
7: 2-7
8: 1-2-4-5-7-9
9: 2-8-10-11
10: 1-5-7

1x2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve