Derby Trail Forums - 8/22: Saratoga ($35k C/O; Personal Ensign)

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES -- ALL RACES OFF THE TURF

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Faves obvious but not Cannizzo has bonus numbers raising claimers in class (19% W's; $3.39) and venerable Bernie the Maestro likes SAR and likes the off going..

Most Likely: #5 Doubledown Again 4-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Bernie the Maestro 6-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #3 Be Bullish 9-5 4th

2nd: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Feels like whomever gets up early has chance to wire; Rudy & Pletcher droppers eligible of course; New sire Concord Point throwing runners, so Arctic Ocean could pop early..

Best Value: #1 French Magician 5-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Know It All Anna 2-1 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #2 Zarleeza 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Arctic Ocean 12-1 2nd

3rd: Tale of the Cat, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Very nice set and not easy to eliminate anyone too readily..

Most Likely: #6 Bern Identity 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 Tenango 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Traffic Light 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Royal Currier 5-1 6th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

KMc's Via Strata SCRATCHED has worked like she'll be ready; Jerkens pair formidable; WinStar-Mott Savvy Star worked with Cigar Street..

Most Likely: #1e J. Jerkens entry 3-1 WON-DH ($3.10)/4th
Next Best: #3 Judy Legend 7-2 5th
Best Value: # 6 Savvy Star 8-1 WON-DH ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Trautman 15-1 6th

5th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Nice to get Cigar Street back to the races. If he stays in for a wet track, it's a glowing endorsement for his health. Has trained very well for return per Welsch/Vesce but 9f a demanding trip..

Best Value: #2 Qualify 3-1 4th
Most Likely: #4 Cigar Street 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bad Hombre 8-1 6th
Super Add; #5 Pick of the Litter 4-1 WON ($13.60)

P5 Grid:

1: 5 (A), 2-3 (B), 6 (C)
2: 1-8 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-7 (C)
3: 5-6 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-4 (C)
4: 1 (A), 3 (B), 5-6-7 (C)
5: 2-4 (A), - (B), 3-5-7 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): 3x4x4x2x2 = $96
Full (A/B/C's): $90

P4 Grid:

2: 1-8 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-7 (C)
3: 5-6 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-4 (C)
4: 1 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-6-7 (C)
5: 2-4 (A), 5-7 (B), 3 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): 4x4x2x4 = $64
Full (A/B/C's): $70

$0.50 Pick 4 (8/6,7/1,4,6/5) Paid $84.12

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

OTT: 12-10 WON ($11.00)-1-6 Order of finish: 10-12-2-6

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Looks like a pretty sparkling set of baby girls..

Most Likely: #1 Gap Year 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Paulassilverlining 6-1 WON ($8.70)
Next Best: #7 Sierra Olivia 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Tippany 5-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Path 12-1 6th

8th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Away Game 6-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #4 Sinistra 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Perfect Title 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Gotham News 4-1 6th

$1 Trifecta (9-4-7) $99.75

9th: 65th Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

As discussed on ATR, this appears to be an excellent running of this recent Travers Weekend standard, especially given the evidence that says the Distaffers are more tightly bunched than originally thought at the start of the year. While Close Hatches is the filly to beat, the West Coast outfits of Baffert and Shirreffs have price options in Fiftyshades and Stanwyck that merit consideration and we already know that Antipathy and Belle Gallantey can challenge the favorites. Pletcher brings Majestic River back from New Jersey exile while blinkering Princess of Sylmar, a move that was authored after positive experiments in the morning..

Most Likely: #6 Close Hatches 8-5 WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #4 Fiftyshadesofhay 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Princess of Sylmar 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Stanwyck 15-1 3rd

$1 Trifecta (6-4-2) $180.75

10th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (DD)

OTT: 5-7/9-10-11 WON ($12.20) Order of finish: 11-1-5-9

11th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF

OTT: 11-8/12-10 WON ($8.90) Order of finish: 10-8-11-12

P6 Grid:

6: 12 (A), 1-10 (B), 6 (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 7 (B), 2-11 (C)
8: 9 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-4-5-7 (C)
10: 5-7 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
11: 11 (A), 8 (B), 10-12 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): 3x3x2x1x2x2 = $144
Full (A/B/C's): $184

P4 Grid:

8: 9 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-2-4-5-7 (B), 3 (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 9 (B), 8-10-11 (C)
11: 8-11 (A), 10 (B), 12 (C)

Simple main (A/B's): 2x6x3x3 = $54
Full (A/B/C's): $44.50

Good luck!
Steve