Derby Trail Forums - 7/2: Belmont Park ($27k C/O); Churchill Downs ($716k Single 6)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

$27k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Zartax 3rd
Next Best: #4 Wild Man 2nd

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Dea 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Galileo's Song 3-1 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Taralena 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Rock Me Again 9-2 7th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Understand why everyone is lining up to beat Proven Commodity, but let's acknowledge that while there are pace pressers signed on, there's no lead-needing speed to go with him. He's worked well (in slow Albertrani style) for return and should be tough with any natural 3 to 4 progression..

Most Likely: #3 Proven Commodity 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 John's Island 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Sam Sparkle 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Classic Salsa Late SCR

8th: 3rd Perfect Sting, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Onus 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Mississippi Delta 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Notte d'Oro 15-1 5th

9th: 60th Mother Goose (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Much more competitive edition than people expected with 4 authentic win candidates and the other 3 with exotics potential. And at least one of the major players is going to disappoint. Off the Tracks and Lewis Bay are the 2 main players for laurels with Rachel's Valentina and Lightstream, while credentialed, needing to answer questions regarding their limitations..

Most Likely: #2 Off the Tracks 3-1 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #5 Lewis Bay 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Mo d'Amour 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Lightstream 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Rachel's Valentina 9-5 5th

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #3 Irish Prayer 9-5 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #10 Longisland Express 12-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Catapult Jack 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Sky Chaparral 15-1 7th

P6 Grid:

5: 3 (A), 4 (B), 1 (C)
6: 2-5 (A), - (B), 3-4-7 (C)
7: 3 (A), 2-4 (B), 1-6/SCR-7 (C)
8: 8 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 4-6-7 (B), - (C)
10: 3-10 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x1x5x2 = 120 x $2 = $240
All A's: 1x2x1x1x2x2 = 8 x $2 = $16

P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), 1-6/SCR-7 (C)
8: 8 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 4-6-7 (B), - (C)
10: 3-10 (A), 2-4-8 (B), 6-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x1x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD) ~ SEQUENCE STARTS 7:26pm ET

$714k Must-Pay Single 6 C/O starts here..

Supremely challenging sequence starts with a treacherous MCLM where many lightly raced types are eligible to jump up over deserving fave Show Bound and other proven nibblers. Spread here to assure safe passage with other places availab le to tip toe..

Most Likely: #7 Show Bound 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #1 Alien Gray 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Ransom 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Cap's Tale 12-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Greelys Charm 20-1 6th

5th: MSW, 3+, 11f-T (P5, P3, DD)

A very nice group of turf routers going 11f and depending on budget, inclined to lean heavily on Giocouragement from Colebrook whose KEE try wins this. Lots of grass pedigrees on display though including Classy O'Prado (whose brother Hesinfront runs in the 1st) out Tapitsfly's sister; Tom's d'Etat out of turf stake mare Julia Tuttle; Nessy out of Melnyk family mare and half to Sky Classic winner Karibu Gardens, and more..

Best Value: #5 Giocouragement 10-1 12th
Next Best: #8 Southern Wild 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Nessy 8-1 WON ($22.40)
Super Add: #3 Classy O'Prado 5-1 6th

6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Dance Champion 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Mutation 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Nueces 4-1 8th
Super Add: #2 (POE) Sail Maker 8-1 6th/7th

7th: 115th Bashford Manor (G3), 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Tricky baby stakes here and next with clear faves but potential for chaos with many moving from 4.5-5f to three quarters. Maryland invader Recruiting Ready the one to catch and many -- if singling in one spot -- may make their stand with him..

Most Likely: #9 Recruiting Ready 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Capt. Grider 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Tip Tap Tapizar 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 U S Officer 5-1 8th

8th: 116th Debutante, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Maybe I'm leaning too heavily on Ben Colebrook barn in this sequence, but China Grove shipped to NY and ran well behind Bode's Dream..

Most Likely: #10 China Grove 7-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Silver Threads 20-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Anna's Bandit 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Country Candy 8-1 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Superb betting race with paper players Walking the Kitten (1/18) & Freethinker (1/14) looking win shy..

Most Likely: #6 Smart Shopping 6-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Freethinker 10-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Walking the Kitten 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Ready for Chianti 7-2 3rd

P6 Grid:

4: 1-4-7 (A), 3-8-10 (B), 2-5-9 (C)
5: 5-8 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
6: 6-9 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 9 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-2-10 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 1-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x1x3x4 = 576 x .20 = $115.20
All A's: 3x2x2x1x3x2 = 72 x .20 = $14.40

P4 Grid:

6: 6-9 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 9 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-2-10 (A), 4-6-7 (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 1-6-7 (A), 2-4-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve