Derby Trail Forums - 8/24: Saratoga ~ Day 29 (John's Call)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N2L, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Nice group of in form players including pair of flat/hop options in North Star Boy and Share Out. Young-ish and lightly raced 5yo All for Us has made transition to chasing winning first try over hurdles and then competing well here and at MTH. Can't be left with too much to do..

Most Likely: #2 All for Us 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 North Star Boy 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Share Out 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Help From Heaven 7-2 WON ($9.40)

2nd: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Clunky assembly of droppers, turf/dirt movers and miscellaneous sluggish fillies. Not sure how you cross out any of them. Need at least 1-4-5-8-9 to start P5 which is a grueling sequence..

Best Value: #4 Chorus Line 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Learning Curve 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Double Dose 3-1 WON ($4.30)
Super Add: #1 Antebellum 4-1 3rd

3rd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Another curiosity. Can Papa's Missle wire after faltering late at 6.5f?

Most Likely: #6 Bee Noteworthy 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #1 (POE) Papa's Missle 4-1 3rd/5th
Best Value: #2 Staff Sgt Reckless 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Ragazza Piu' Bella 5-1 7th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

May need to take a stand here with pair of deep MSW's to follow and Ron Winchell is giving away win shy colt Tapit Wicked here. Needs to be timed perfectly to be fooled into winning, but if it's not him, there's 5-6 eligible..

Most Likely: #3 Tapit Wicked 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #4 Bow Tie Affair Late SCR
Next Best: #11 Big Air 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 House of Friends 10-1 8th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Some nice NY bred pedigrees including Gemologist daughter Ingrid (half to Sean Avery for same connections) and Out of Trouble (Into Mischief), a half to win early Bird of Trey (Birdstone). Respect precocious speed of Bustin Stones babies too and Roddy Valente and Bruce Levine offer 6-1 Dr. Stone..Interesting group..

Most Likely: #2 Ingrid 9-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #8 Dr. Stone 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 No Lunks 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Out of Trouble 4-1 6th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T G/S, P3, DD)

P5/P4 end with 6 firsters and three 2nd time starters and narrow plays will lean on Chad Brown's Forge SCR'D moving to turf out of seemingly live 7/23 maiden affair..

Most Likely: #2 Let's Get Loud 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Mongo Nation 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Toshiro 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Hembree 8-1 WON ($26.20)

P5 Grid:

2: 4-8 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-3-6-7 (C)
3: 6 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 3 (A), - (B), 2-4-11 (C)
5: 2-8 (A), 5-6-7 (B), 1-4 (C)
6: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), 3-4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x1x2x3 = $12 ($6 for .50)

P4 Grid:

3: 6 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 3-4 (A), 2-11 (B), 1-5 (C)
5: 2-8 (A), 5-6-7 (B), 1-4 (C)
6: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), 3-4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 1x2x2x3 = $12 ($6 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6,7/3,4,7/2,3/4) Paid $158.25

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

With Magsamelia the only pace-setting speed, will take shot with Bissectrisa (8-1) who can overcome wide draw and gain adequate position under savvy Saez. Joe Sharp has very encouraging numbers raising claimers up in class adding to appeal in fun betting affair..

Best Value: #10 Bissectrisa 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Emerald Pond 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Greywalls 5-1 WON ($13.40)
Super Add: #4 Littlemissperfect 6-1 3rd

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Intriguing group made more complex by Saratoga Heater SCR'D wheeling back in 72 hours seeking 3rd win at the meet. DJ trainee prefers it wet. Not a great deal of pace here -- Pop the Hood SCR'D will be setting it..

Most Likely: #4 More Zen Tea 9-2 DNF (Eased)
Best Value: #7 Candid Desire 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Proper Freud 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 John's Island 3-1 4th

9th: 13th John's Call-R, 3+, 13f-T (DD)

Excellent gathering for this three-turner and Chuck Lawrence may be clever in here with My Afleet who owns '15 win over this turf and may end up inheriting control under Lezcano. Just one of many options though..

Best Value: #7 My Afleet 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mr Maybe 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Procurement 15-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Renown 4-1 3rd

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT

Top pair own significant edge. Frosty Lady next logical and offers value..

Most Likely: #4 Stella Street 8-5 4th
Next Best: #10 Marnesia Big Girl 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Frosty Lady 10-1 WON ($9.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Silver Vixen 8-1 5th

P4 Grid:

7: 2-10 (A), 4-5 (B), 1-6-8 (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
9: 3-7 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-8 (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 6 (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve