Derby Trail Forums - 11/5: Santa Anita ~ Breeders' Cup Saturday ($511k C/O)

There's not a lot to say about what we were treated to Friday. Beholder and Songbird put in a display that will take it's place among the great races of our lifetime. For Songbird, there will be other big moments, but for Beholder, this was the last moment. She was going to retire as an all time great no matter the outcome, but for B. Wayne Hughes and Richard Mandella and everyone that loves her, adding this final glory was a true fairy tale ending.

A raucously fun day Friday and got some nice pops out of good notions with the surfaces playing nice and even for everyone. The big multi tickets were unproductive as Tamarkuz single-handledly dashed opportunities and there's a $500k+ C/O into P6 today. The pot should go by $4,000,000.. Hope everyone did OK on Day 1 and are ready to take some big swings today!

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: 4th Juvenile Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Plenty of pace involved in this wacky-looking juvy dash and off pace types Ooper Wallah SCR'D and Hootie SCR'D look like fun prices to kick off the day. Wesley Ward sends 3 and though Con Te Partiro is drawn in tricky inside slot, appears the most versatile and lands Dettori..

Most Likely: #10 Kitten's Cat 7-2 WON ($12.00)
Best Value: #6 Sword Fighter 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Con Te Portiro 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Red Lodge 5-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Partyinthepaddock 8-1 7th

2nd: 4th Golden State Juvenile-R, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 California Diamond 6-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Sizzlin Square 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Milton Freewater 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Rinse and Repeat 10-1 4th

3rd: 48th Sen. Ken Maddy (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

If you're not playing multis, you might want to take a stand against Lady Shipman and Acapulco, though I'm concerned there isn't enough pace signed on to compromise their chances. Mehronissa (6-1), Fair Point (8-1), Entrechat (15-1) & Most Beautiful (12-1) all are attractively priced as alternates..

Most Likely: #8 Mehronissa 6-1 9th
Best Value: #12 Fair Point 8-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #13 Lady Shipman 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Entrechat 15-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Most Beautiful 12-1 3rd

4th: 33rd BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Christophe Clement is 29/0-5-3 in the Cup and it would be mildly amusing if he breaks through with a dirt runner. Yellow Agate adds Lasix after pair of polished wins to start career. With Joking out of the Sprint, this is Manny Franco's lone assignment of the day. As heard on ATR, Valadorna was pointed for this immediately after breaking her maiden and has thrived out of the KEE win. Baffert's Noted and Quoted has gone forward out of the Chandelier. Daddy's Lil Darling may have well been best in the Alcibiades..

Best Value: #4 Yellow Agate 8-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Noted and Quoted 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Valadorna 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Daddy's Lil Darling 12-1 4th

5th: 18th BC Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Is Lady Eli a sentimental choice? Yes.. But also based on how she comes in. And if you were curious how the East Coast turfers stood up out here, the 2yo results Friday should encourage. Queen's Trust (and Stoute's Ulysses in the Turf) looks to fit well in this group..

Most Likely: #8 Lady Eli 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #11 Queen's Trust 6-1 WON ($18.00)
Best Value: #1 Sea Calisi 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Sentiero Italia 12-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Al's Gal 15-1 9th

P5 Grid:

1: 6-10 (A), 1-3-9 (B), 2-4 (C)
2: 4 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
3: 8-12-13 (A), 4-11 (B), 2-7-9 (C)
4: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), 2-6-7-11 (C)
5: 8-11 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (10/3,4/12/6/11) Paid $23,700.90

P4 Grid:

2: 4 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
3: 8-12-13 (A), 2-4-11 (B), 7-9 (C)
4: 3-4-10 (A), 2-7-11 (B), 6-9-12 (C)
5: 8-11 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x3x2 = $18 ($9 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (3,4/12/6/11) Paid $2,713.70

6th: 33rd BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Smallest field of the day and the race that's given me the most trouble. With Lord Nelson out, deck seems cleared for A.P. Indian, nation's most consistent sprinter, to excel stalking behind the speed. Noholdingback Bear looks to be poised for best yet with 6 weeks into this. Masochistic turned into a pussycat when Mike Smith got aboard. Bwana Charlie clone Mind Your Biscuits can pick them up late. Limousine Liberal and Drefong would be worthy winners. Very confusing group..

Most Likely: #5 A.P. Indian 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Noholdingback Bear 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Masochistic 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Mind Your Biscuits 20-1 3rd

7th: 9th BC Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$511k C/O starts here.. $4-5MM pool expected..

Wild group down the hill and there are several turnback profile types (Om, A Lot, Celestine) that are the best candidates for laurels. Karar kept catching my eye during the week here and Holy Lute is in career best form for the great Jim Cassidy. Pick a handful and play around. Should be fun..

Best Value: #12 Om 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 A Lot 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #14 Celestine 8-1 12th
Super Add: #5 Karar 15-1 14th
Must Include: #13 Holy Lute 10-1 6th

P4 Grid:

4: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), 2-6-7-11 (C)
5: 8 (A), - (B), 1-7-11 (C)
6: 1-5-8 (A), 2-3-7-9 (B), - (C)
7: 9-12-14 (A), 5-8-13 (B), 1-2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x7x6 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A's: 3x1x3x3 = $27 ($13.50 for .50)

8th: 33rd BC Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Besides the Classic and Distaff, there's no more important or fascinating encounter on the slate with this chance to get an early read on the Derby Trail. The KY pair from Casse & Romans look best coming in and I had trouble separating them. CA players from Shirreffs and Baffert have advantage of locale and looks of quality. FL invader Three Rules has beaten tomato cans but is fast and possibly this good. NY troika from Pletcher and Brown seem easily on par but I'll give edge at this point to those that have gone 2 turns. Should be terrific..

Most Likely: #10 Not This Time 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Classic Empire 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #1 Klimt 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Gormley 5-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Three Rules 8-1 6th

9th: 33rd BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

With all the debate about Coolmore players (Found/Highland Reel) and Flintshire wanting firm going, Stoute's Ulysses has traveled under the radar. At 12-1, lightly-raced Galileo colt has big upside. Da Big Hoss does nothing but try hard. Mondialiste and Money Multiplier are 15-1 and 20-1 and well within range of upsetting the whole affair. I cannot leave personal fave Texas Ryano out of the exotics as his steady improvement gives him a shot at a slice. Not getting the attention it used to, but race is going to be very entertaining..

Best Value: #7 Ulysses 12-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Highland Reel 3-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Flintshire 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Da Big Hoss 20-1 11th
Must Include: #11 Texas Ryano 30-1 6th

10th: 10th BC Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Like the 6f Sprint, this is a puzzling group. Haveyougoneaway is the female A.P. Indian and Wavell Avenue has taken all season to find her form. Finest City a great story as young Ian Kruljac trains his only horse out of his father's barn. By the Moon always goes off underbet. Carina Mia (as well as Tara's Tango) turn back to distance they like. Should be a scramble..

Most Likely: #2 Haveyougoneaway 3-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Wavell Avenue 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Finest City 12-1 WON ($19.40)
Exotics Use: #6 By the Moon 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Carina Mia 7-2 9th

11th: 33rd BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

For a filly coming in off a pair of Group 1 wins, Alice Springs has been largely ignored this week. Coolmore may have already broken through by this race, but last year's beaten Juvy Filly Turf fave can get her honor stateside honor today. Tourist can back up his G1 Fourstardave win here. Limato looks handy which will be an asset stretching out on this course. Ironicus has not missed an exacta in 2 seasons. Tepin appears up against it attempting a defense..

Most Likely: #2 Alice Springs 4-1 10th
Best Value: #5 Tourist 15-1 WON ($26.80)
Next Best: #10 Limato 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Ironicus 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Tepin 3-1 2nd

12th: 33rd BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Hi-5)

Had hoped to get to this spot and lean entirely on California Chrome, but Arrogate has done too well coming up to this to ignore. Baffert 3yo will need to perform on level he did at Saratoga, but it won't surprise if he does. Chrome has been otherworldly running up the score on over-matched foes this year and take note of the impact he clearly had on Dortmund who was a ghost ship Friday in the Dirt Mile. Chrome isn't leaving the stage like Beholder, but expect he gets a coronation today..

Most Likely: #4 California Chrome 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Arrogate 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #9 Hoppertunity 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Effinex 15-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Melatonin 12-1 5th

P4 Grid:

7: 12 (A), - (B), 5-9-14 (C)
8: 5-10 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
10: 2-10 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)
11: 2-5 (A), - (B), 8-9-10 (C)
12: 4 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x3x4x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A's: 1x2x2x2x2x1 = 16 x $2 = $32

$2 Pick-6 (2,7,15/5/12/12/5/10) Paid $779.60 (5OF6)

P4 Grid:

9: 4-7-12 (A), - (B), 2-6-9-10-11 (C)
10: 2-10-12 (A), 6-8-9 (B), 3-11 (C)
11: 2-5 (A), 9-10 (B), 1-8-13 (C)
12: 4-10 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (12/12/5/10) Paid $1,003.25

Good luck!
Steve