Derby Trail Forums - 3/6: Tampa Bay (7th-11th; X-C P5); Santa Anita (Rainbow Force Out)

TAMPA BAY DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Columbia, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #13 Blue Cat 20-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Whatmakessammyrun 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Tapwood 10-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Boreas 12-1 3rd

8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Last Promise 10-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Fire Marshall Bill 8-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Uncork the Bottle 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Speeding Kid 6-1 5th

9th: Hillsborough (G2), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Micheline 8-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #1 Magic Attitude 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 La Signare 8-1 DH-4th
Super Add: #8 Miss Teheran 6-1 DH-4th

AQUEDUCT 8th: Heavenly Prize, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Pace could get hot or Portal Creek/Gone Glimmering could spar lightly. Either waty, Franco & Lake Avenue should be poised to strike from the Marty McGee 'Open Air Outside Box Where the Air is Fresh and Clear'..

Most Likely: #8 Lake Avenue 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #1 Gone Glimmering 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Thankful 9-5 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Portal Creek 6-1 2nd

10th: Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Jouster 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Domain Expertise 3-1 WON ($12.80)
Best Value: #3 Mia Martina 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Queen of the Green 20-1 5th

AQUEDUCT 9th: Gotham (G3), 3yo, 1m (DD)

Don't believe this needs to be overthought. Highly Motivated exceedingly likely ("A") with Capo (back to one turn) and Freedom Fighter logical alternatives ("B's")..

Most Likely: #3 Highly Motivated 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Capo Kane 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Freedom Fighter 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Weyburn 20-1 WON ($95.50)

11th: Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Hidden Stash 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Candy Man Rocket 2-1 11th
Best Value: #12 Sittin On Go 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Awesome Gerry 15-1 6th

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

TAM 9: 1-4-11 (A), 2-3-8 (B), 5-10 (C)
AQU 8: 8 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
TAM 10: 2-10 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
AQU 8: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
TAM 11: 3-8 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $57 ~ $12 (5-10) + $36 (1-2) + $9 (3)

P5 Grid:

7: 6-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-4 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)
9: 1-4-8-11 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-10 (C)
10: 2 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
11: 3-8 (A), - (B), 6-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x4x1x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups: $32 ~ $16 (8-10) + $8 (5-10) + $8 (6-12)

P4 Grid:

8: 3-4 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)
9: 1-4-8-11 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-10 (C)
10: 2-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-8 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x4x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $36 ~ $24 (8-10) + $12 (5-10)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Rainbow 6 Force Out Starts Here..

Talented quintet (1-2-3-5-7), all involved in Future Wager Pool #4, assemble here for most important Derby prep yet. Life Is Good has been learning to relax in the mornings, but encounters added challenge of rail draw and need for early position if not the lead. Likely the most talented here, but not much margin for error. Dream Shake a debut smash (6.5f), but is being asked for a lot in 2nd start. Medina Spirit keeps exceeding expectation. The Great One has made steady gains since late last year. Roman Centurian, a late runner that will benefit from a contested pace, just missed to Media Spirit in the Lewis..

Most Likely: #1 Life Is Good 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #3 Medina Spirit 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 The Great One 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Roman Centurian 8-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Graded Stakes placed Whisper Not appears to have a significant edge over this group..

Most Likely: #2 Whisper Not 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #6 Tripoli 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Club Aspen 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Rip City 5-2 2nd

8th: San Carlos (G2), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Weird group with turf/dirt movers and hatful of turnbacks and layoff runners. Brickyard Ride may simply blitz them..

Most Likely: #6 Brickyard Ride 3-1 WON ($12.00)
Best Value: #8 Loud Mouth 8-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Tigre Di Sluggo 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Manhattan Up 20-1 6th

9th: Kilroe (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Top to bottom, best race of the day anywhere with every participant thoroughly stakes credentialed. Not a ton of pace here..

Best Value: #6 Flavius 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Ride a Comet 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Casa Creed 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Hit the Road 4-1 WON ($10.40)

10th: Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (DD, Hi-5)

Big Cap offers first true character test for Maxfield facing 4 out of the San Pasqual and 3 out of the Pegasus. May very well pass that test, but 8-5 not an acceptable price. Independence Hall may be back to the level of brilliance he displayed in 2nd career start and should get a comfy trip behind the speed..

Best Value: #1 Independence Hall 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Maxfield 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Idol 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Super Add: #5 Express Train 3-1 2nd

11th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Hi-5)

Experienced Mr. Impossible the one to beat, but firsters Patron d'Oro (Koriner) & Following Sea (Baffert) come in with high morning marks. Given the speed here, "other" Baffert, Defunded (6-1), a gelded first time 3yo, may be clever from off the pace with Rosario..

Best Value: #11 Defunded 6-1 WON ($19.40)
Next Best: #4 Mr. Impossible 4-1 2nd-Up via DQ
Exotics Use: #3 Patron d'Oro 7-2 -
Super Add: #10 Following Sea 5-2 3rd-Down via DQ

Force Out ~ Rainbow P6 Grid:

6: 1-3-5 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
7: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-6-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-5 (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-11 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x4x2x4 = 480 x .20 = $96
All A's: 3x1x3x4x2x2 = 144 x .20 = $18.80
Backup (1-3-4-5 in 9th): 3x1x3x4x2x2 = 144 x .20 = $18.80

P5 Grid:

7: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-6-7-9 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-4-8-10 (C)
10: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
11: 4-11 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (1-4-8-10 in 9th; 3-10 in 11th): 1x3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24; 1x3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-5 (2,4/6/2/6/11) Paid $2,105.90

P4 Grid:

8: 6-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-6-7-9 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-4-8-10 (C)
10: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
11: 4-11 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (1-4-8-10 in 9th; 3-10 in 11th): 3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24; 3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/2/6/11) Paid $1,104.75

Good luck!
Steve