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Originally Posted by SentToStud
you're on for a beer!
Nothng like a future wager on a future wager!!!
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heh heh, hadn't looked at it that way! I'm actually at a distinct disadvantage on the bet, because the chance I'd remember having made it 2 years from now is about nil. But if you win and remind me, I'll remember it!
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Originally Posted by SentToStud
On the Jai Alai, exotic pool arbitrage thing, I live in So Florida and go once a year or so to Dania when someone visits and they want to see it. I do not think they handle more than $3,000-4,000 total per game -- about $60,000 a night. I've looked at the Ex/Quin pools and it's very miniscule. Not saying someone can't do ok with it, but I don't see how.
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Just to be clear, it's not an arbitrage (although I'm very partial to arbitrage!). It's merely a matter of factoring in the game structure into the outcome. I can give you an example since I went and got the book off the shelf for the answer to Cardus. If all the players are equally skilled, players 1 & 2 each have a 16.31% chance to win the game. Player 7 has just an 8.88% chance to win. Player 8 has an 11.78% chance to win. These aren't stats from real play. These are from a model that simply assumes each player has a 50% chance to win each point he plays. So, Player 2 has almost twice the chance of winning the game as Player 7, even if they are equally skilled. (The reason Player 8 sees a slight increase over Player 7 has to do with the fact that at some point the points have double value.) I think it's fairly amazing that "post position" has such a big impact on the outcome, and I doubt that this is well understood by the bettors.
I agree that the pool size makes it hard to imagine making much money at Jai Alai.
Note to self. Remember beer bet.
--Dunbar