Will all of you please pardon me while I vent?
The topic is morning lines, especially the ML for this week's contest card. Some morning lines are better than others, and I know that most linemakers do their best to predict how the wagering public will bet their races. It is not an easy job.
As I looked at the Woodbine line, I got the distinct impression that the linemaker had fallen into a very mechanical pattern and was almost doing the line by rote. In most races, there was what appeared to be an analysis of the top three selections, but after that in almost every race the 4th ranked pick was 6-1, the 5th ranked pick was 8-1, and the next rank was in a couple of cases 8-1, but usually double digits. In the two races where there will probably be an odds on favorite, the linemaker simply wrote in 1-1 and moved on. I had the feeling that the linemaker wanted his numbers to work out and forced the odds into his formula rather than conscientiously evaluating how each race would be bet.
This is a disservice to the horseplayer. Some players make their own line, but many beginners use the line to determine whether a horse is a good bet or not, and in many instances the line can become a sort of self fulfilling prophecy.
OK, I've gotten that off of my chest, I feel better now. Thank you for your indulgence.
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