Friday
R5 - #4 Stillwater Cove (20-1), #5 Bulletin (10-1)
R6 - #7 Stellar Agent (30-1), #14 East (20-1)
R7 - #5 Cassies Dreamer (30-1), #8 Sippican Harbor (12-1)
R8 - #3 Much Better (10-1)
R9 - #7 Mind Control (20-1), #10 Knicks Go (30-1), #4 Tight Ten (30-1)
I’m not sure I’d say all of these are “must includes” but I think they all warrant a closer look.
In Race 5, Stillwater Cove should like the cutback in distance and if there is any pace for her to run into, then I think she’s got a decent chance. The problem is it looks like a lot of horses are looking for that late kick in this one. Absent a pressured pace, I’m very intrigued with #5 Bulletin who looks like he could just run away with the race. Beating winners in his debut was a nice start to his career. I’m not sure how good the competition was, but this one’s got speed.
In Race 6, I think East could be a special horse so I really like her at 20-1. Looking for Stellar Agent to improve a bit more, so maybe she does enough to compete here.
In Race 7, I’m not really crazy about the longshots but I’m also not crazy about Bellafina...so I think their could be some value. I like seeing Sippican Harbor training at 6 and 7 furlongs. And isn’t Gary Contessa good for a nice payday now and then? Cassies Dreamer could benefit from a cleaner trip. Not sure if, even with a clean trip, she wins but she’s been improving so I’ll give her a look.
In Race 8, I really like Much Better and if I can get 10-1 or better on Baffert/DVD (am I reading it right that they’re hitting at a 50% clip in the last 60 days?), then I like my chances. Early speed here in a race that may not have a ton of early speed and maybe this 10-1 shot pulls it off. If there is any longshot that is a “must include,” I think it’s this one.
In Race 9, I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to beat Game Winner...but not impossible. I’m intrigued a little by Mind Control and think Tight Ten is one of those horses that will steadily improve and could have a shot. I’m most intrigued by Knicks Go who just seems to be running like a different horse since the addition of lasix. This horse always had some speed but it looks like the lasix may be helping with adding distance. And the workouts on Sep 20 and Oct 19 are very encouraging.
My top longshots to include are #5 Bulletin in Race 5, #14 East in Race 6, #3 Much Better in Race 8, and #10 Knicks Go in Race 9.
Good luck all!
|