[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH OAKS DAY


POST-LATE SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Scorching Wayne Catalano (Ocean Breeze here, Manny Wah SCR in 6th, MDN Pit Boss in the 3rd Saturday) is 11 for 44 over the last 90 days with 28 of 44 in the money..

Most Likely: #6 Ocean Breeze 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 She Can't Sing 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Miss T Too 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Palomita 7-2 2nd


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Honorifique 12-1: 2nd timer bulleted; Kenneally poised for nice weekend.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Travel Column 7-2: $850k Frosted from Cox for Larry Best.. WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Amiche 9-2: Firster savvy Devaux w/ 3 graded STK run'rs at CD, SAR.. 10th
Super Add: #5 Three Tipsy Chix 20-1: Wilkes will have On Fire Baby baby ready to run.. 8th


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Strike That 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Honest Mischief 2-1 WON-Up via DQ ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Mojo Man 10-1 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Mucho 8-1 5th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (.20 Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 I Hear You 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Sicilia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Sense You Left 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Flabbergasted 3-1 WON ($8.60)


8th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Interchangeable faves poised for big, early confrontation and Sconsin poised if pair burn each other out..

Most Likely: #7 Four Graces 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mundaye Call 6-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sconsin 6-1 WON ($16.40)


P5 Grid:

4: 1-3-6
5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7
8: 1-6-7-10

All A's: 3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


P4 Grid:

5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7-8-10
8: 1-6-7-10

All A's: 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


9th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sharing one of weekends most likely winners; 20-1 Lucky Betty is no worse than the other exotic candidates..

Most Likely: #3 Sharing 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Hendy Woods 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Lucky Betty 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 In Good Spirits 5-1 4th


10th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (2-day $2 P6, P4, P3, DD)

Top pair have clear edge on rest of the field..

Most Likely: #2 McKinzie 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 By My Standards 7-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #1 Silver Dust 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Owendale 6-1 2nd


2-day $2 P6 Grid:

FRI 10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
FRI 11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
FRI 12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 12: 10 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
SAT 13: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 14: 17 (A), 16-18 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A's: 2x2x3x1x1x1 = 12 x $2 = $24


11th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

After conquering Midnight Bisou at the Spa, can Vexatious best Monomoy Girl here? Why not?

Best Value: #2 Vexatious 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #6 She's a Julie 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Horologist 4-1 3rd


12th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, DD, Hi-5)

What had been billed as a Swiss Skydiver/Gamine duel is now clearly a 3 way battle with Speech unlikely to sneak up on anyone after several weeks of attention. Using all 3 in multis. Shedaresthedevil needs to take another step forward for laurels, but she does keep improving..

Most Likely: #5 Gamine 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Speech 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Swiss Skydiver 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Shedaresthedevil 20-1 WON ($32.20)
Hi-5 Play: #3 Donna Veloce 15-1 8th


P5 Grid:

8: 1-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)
Backup: 3x1x2x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (1-5-7 with 3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $0.50 Pick-5 (5/3,5/6/8/7) Paid $1,413.70


P4 Grid:

9: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

All A's: 1x2x2x3 = 12 x $4 = $48
Backup: 1x2x2x1 = $4 (3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $1 Pick-4 (3,5/6/8/7) Paid $256.20


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 8 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)


Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)


13th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T

Ageless Extravagant Kid the horse to beat, but there's no margin for error and another baker's half dozen eligible for laurels if it isn't him..

Most Likely: #5 Extravagant Kid 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Carotari 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Chaps 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Wellabled 10-1 12th


P4 Grid:

10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
13: 5-10-12 (A), 1-2-6-13-14 (B), (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Safe trips all; Let's get lucky!
Steve