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Originally Posted by MisterB
HS tripped a 101 speed fig in the Bris, no one close has done that, so yes, overall speed figs, not Beyer figs. The horse that won was the worst horse in the numbers games. If your horse is a runner, and not a rater, you don't try to rate your horse, it's a disaster in the making. This horse got off a step slow, and did not try to grab the rail with his speed. His 2 turn win at K, was sizzle time, not rate time.
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His Bris number for the Southwest was a 98 which is statistically insignificant from his previous 101. The Beyer numbers were the same.
Also, HS had the one race with a 101. Why assume that was the norm and not his previous high of 95? Most people thought the 101 was a mere stepping stone and he would keep moving forward. Sometimes the aberration IS the 101 and the horse regresses to the previous levels. What happened is that he didn't improve his number and others did especially Teuflesberg.
What you fail to take into account is that these are developing three year olds. Just because no one had run a 101 number before doesn't mean that they won't move forward and do so now.
You are looking backward and saying that he regressed because of the way the PP's looked on that day, instead of looking at how the other horses ran.
If you look at HS's past performances before the Southwest and ignore his 101 figure, he looks quite average in that race.