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Originally Posted by Downthestretch55
S2S,
You might have something there.
Did you know that Russia is now the leading producer of oil? They passed the Saudis recently. Who do you think they're selling their oil to?
Think Europe.
Why would they seek to target the counties that are supporting their market?
Bush, as usual..playing aggressor-in-chief, again shows his ignorance.
Oh well. And so it goes.
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I think you are lacking understanding of the Russian oil market. First of all Russian oil production is down as they have "nationalized" the big private oil companies which in turn has slowed production. Secondly the oil in Russia is mostly in remote areas and southern areas where there is a lot of unrest. The fact that it's refineries are a long way from its customers leads to higher production costs but because they lack a centralized market (which NYMEX is helping them with) they are selling oil at lower than market prices. Also much of their oil pipelines must pass through other countries such as Belarus which recently had a fued with Russia over supposed Belarussian siphoning of the pipeline. The biggest market for Russian oil sits to the Southeast in China. A booming and developing economy is starving for oil and the Russians have a ton of it in a location that is much better suited to serve China than anywhere else. However Putin is terrified of a strengthing Chinese military power on his border and as such has not pursued the issue verymuch. Because the price of oil has risen so much, mostly due to a tremendous increase in demand by rapidly developing economies in China and India, Russia has been able to "get back on its feet" so to speak in regards to regaining status as a superpower. The fact that they are "nationalizing" the oil industry in an effort to add to the states coffers and Putins seemingly indiscriminate use of oil as a political pawn is the real issue here. That he flippantly talks of aiming missiles is a sure sign that the price of oil is about to go up.
Sure Russia's biggest customers are Europeans but they need the oil more than the russians think they need the European customers. Not to say that they are going to bomb them but there are emerging markets hungry for cheap oil that can replace Europe. However it remains to be seen how long until the russian production mechanism starts to deteriorate without the private companies who brought back seeminly dead fields with new technology and research. Putin is bold because he is flush with oil cash, seemingly is nearing the end of his reign and has the perfect foil in Bush whose international popularity has made hero's out of those who oppose him. But I bet you if given the choice, the leaders of Europe, eastern especially would love to duck under the cover of the missile defense umbrella rather than go back to the fear and actuality of Russian rule.