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Originally Posted by ELA
Of course the "rail bias" has been debated and debated over and over again. Personally, my question is -- what's the difference? Rail bias, he wins like whoever you want to call it, by 10. So, especially now, since the horse came back and did what he did -- what difference does it make?
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The difference is that the live rail makes horses look (both on paper and on film) better than they actually run.
Curlin was hung up 3-to-4 wide on both turns in the Derby - while winner Street Sense rode it every step, 2nd place Hard Spund rode it every step, 4th place Imawildandcrazyguy rode it for the first 6.5 furlongs of the race, and 5th place finisher Sedgefield rode it every step.
I'm not saying that being denied a live rail was the only reason that Curlin was drowned by Street Sense and Hard Spun - but still had enough to narrowly hold off Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield ...
However, I believe it was a factor in the result.
And I know you're going to say "well that total bum Circular Quay was 6th with a wide trip!" ... BUT, keep in mind Circular Quay raced 18th early on and had a great fast pace to setup his close. Much like Street Sense and Imawildandcrazyguy did from the 19th and 20th spots.
Any Given Saturday was denied the rail and finished 7th or 8th after a wide far turn move - however, unlike Circular Quay, he didn't get a pace setup making his race better. I would argue he clearly ran the better race of the two.
Even if you want to hammer away about how much of a bum Circular Quay is - he still is probably a better deep closer than Imawildandcrazyguy is.