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Originally Posted by ShadowRoll
Now that we're getting down to the nitty-gritty, how are people going to deal with the synthetic to dirt angle? Some commentators have opined that while form doesn't translate dirt to junk, it works just fine vice versa.
If this is true, throw out bad performances by usual dirt runners, like Pyro, who have tried the stuff (assuming you don't think there's other reasons for the anomalous stinker), and handicap the junk runners as if they were going to run the same on dirt.
Or, is it a mistake to treat the subject monolithically? Maybe there's a big difference among different synthetic surfaces at different tracks, in terms of how form transfers.
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I gave a list in another thread of about 10-15 graded stakes winners on synthetics that came back to not be able to run anywhere near as well on the dirt so that just isn't true. I'm going to actually pay attention to the works for the first time for the synthetic horses. Most of them I will be tossing cause they will be overbet on their synthetic form but if one of them turns in a nice work I will give them consideration. If Colonel John were to not work on the dirt I will significanly cut back the money I'm wagering on the Derby as I don't care to have to guess whether or not the horse will like the dirt for a horse that certainly has a shot but will be at far too low odds for my taste.