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Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I have to be honest man. IMO the reason a discussion didn't materialize is it's sort of hard to figure out what you are saying in your first post. What are you looking to get at? That a good way to make money is by identifying bad favorites? Of course, but then how do you play it? I think it all depends and unless you give people more time than a minute before the race, it's hard to form a discussion. I also strongly disagree with your show betting principles, but that's a whole other discussion.
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Fair enough.
Yes I am trying to discuss the strategy of using Losing Favorites.
this is a pretty light day for false favorites, but I am trying to generate some.
Next Race Churchill Downs Race 2
PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_109725.pdf
Looking at 2 horses here who combined could take some money. The favorite #4 (5/2) Midnight Illusion isn't a bad looking horse at all. Sterling often finds a way to lose. It looks like the horse peaked in february, may or may not dislike CD and is crying for a class drop with blinkers added.
The #1 (7/2) Badger Bret comes off the 2month layoff after completely stopping in the stretch last out. His stride looks fragile and he lacks gameness. There is a slim chance that he needs dirt and the dirt style to use his speed, but there is also maybe an equal chance that dirt is going to be harder on him. mena rides.
The problem I have here is that this race is fairly low quality. A horse like Midnight Illusion could "inherit" the win if nothing wants to try. This isn't a race I want to invest a lot into even with a fair share of the money on low probability horses.
There are 2 first time starters #5,6.
#6 is romans/albarado and has a decent worktab.
you also have the #2 and 3 with the #3Palm Springs coming off a race where it made some headway before quiting at Keeneland.
Hard race to bet. I want to see the tote and look at the prices on #6