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Originally Posted by Danzig
a good handicapper will take the surface into consideration. to ignore a surface switch, regardless of feelings on talent, would be a big mistake. surface matters! it's an unknown at this point whether either big brown or curlin will handle the change. it's very possible that they'll like it, and it's also quite possible they won't handle the change at all. a drop in their effort may be enough for an AWT specialist to make up the difference.
handicappers don't bet the chalk, they look for who offers the most value/best chance to win money. this race is a good place to try to beat the favorite(s).
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Agree 100%. To my point the money and handicappers (not to mention the media) will still be pointing to Big Brown and Curlin as the runaway favorites. The outcome may turn out very different, but I doubt it.