My first opinion on this P4 sequence is that it is by far the most difficult one of the meet. I have struggled with it and still don't have final opinions. I'm half-assed hoping for a scratch or two to help me make up my mind. That said, it'll probably go chalk-chalk-chalk-chalk and pay $40.
Clermont is an include on my ticket. I don't think there was a problem with the Mnr race other than the mud (my opinion, nothing to back that up). I am looking at that race as a toss and if he is healthy, he fits. His one Tampa dirt try was a second place run at this level and distance. That says a lot to me. Shirly Girten has been respectable over the years, but Luis Gonzalez signing on was the cherry on top. I'm not real familiar with the training track he's been working on, but I don't mind seeing slow works on the farm. Rarely do you see anything quick away from Tampa (unless it is on the OTC rubber), there is no reason to tip your hand when you are away from prying eyes.
Kev, I did not include Thunder Rising and I looked at that one a long time. Artz was deadly early in the meet last year, but her first two starters this year did not show much. I had to stop adding somewhere, but I wouldn't be shocked if this one rode the rail to victory. Right now, I am 3,4,7,8,9 in this race.
I think the speed will destroy the 9th race. The 1,3,5,8,9,10 all are either speedy types or stretching out from sprints that they showed speed in. Two or more bound to get after it and destoy their chances as well as the others that may have difficulty rating. That sets it up for Allie's Event to rally. The only reason I am not going to single is Mr. De La Cruz, he has shown me nothing so far. The first thing I normally do with a race is find the horses that have no shot. I couldn't find one here. I can make a case for every horse, so if you like who you like, go ahead and include.
The 10th race is so bad, you have to include the 3 - Whatdoesladdiewant and the 12 - Igonewild on your ticket. Both are by decent 1st time out sires. Neither trainer is very good with firsters, but if either one has an ounce of talent, they can beat these.
My ticket so far.....
2,4
3,4,7,8,9
2,5 (still undecided here)
2,3,6,12
I shoud be available the rest of the morning if anyone has any specific questions. I hope this helps Declan.
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