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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.
If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.
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UUGGHH--someone help me here. You have to take into account the end result of the difference in mounts at the end of the meet. At the end of the meet Prado could have 35 more mounts that Gomez. That is 7 more wins. Giving Gomez a 5 race lead. Jeses Rupert--do you understand now. The 25 mount difference isnt going to he held constant throughout the meet.