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Originally Posted by Kasept
My reaction was more provoked by the ridiculousness of Mine That Bird going than anything else. I hadn't paid any attention to Atomic Rain until multiple viewings of the Wood. I actually was far more interested in West Side Bernie. I think it's apparant in the Wood that Atomic Rain had plenty of traffic to deal with in the stretch and persevered after having been part of the pace from the opening. The three horses that finished ahead of him were all rallying wider while he was pocketed. I didn't give him a thought until seeing how he hung in after things finally opened up in deepest stretch. From my vantage point, that was a very good try.
I certainly can't a fault horse for an off effort at Tampa, and while he may only be an ALW horse when it's said and done, I think he is way more worthy of a Derby slot than a Mine That Bird. We also don't know what Breen is seeing from the horse in these 2 weeks post-Wood. The timing and effort have suited him really well, and the horse may be blossoming. Spring 3 year olds can mature rapidly, and maybe Breen sees him going in the right direction and believes he is coming up to the race the right way.
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Just because horses are pocketed doesn't mean they had tough trips. In fact, it often means they had decent trips. Yeah, Atomic Rain was pocketed into the stretch, and until about the eighth pole, and then the field separated itself, and ran away from Atomic Rain. He wasn't " courageous " at all....he was too slow. And, remember something else, the winner had lengths of trouble, which makes his margin of finish over Atomic Rain larger than it actually was.
Frankly, Atomic Rain has not given a great indication that he can even be a successful allowance horse at this time. Maybe if they run him shorter he will improve, but he seems somewhat disance challenged.....and slow.
I understand Mine That Bird is another poorly placed entrant....however how much worse are his pps, honestly, than those of Atomic Rain?