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Originally Posted by jms62
You need to take the TC talk in Stride. He is in the media business. If an absolute miracle happens and he calls it right and POTN wins the triple crown, JW will be remembered forever for making the ballsy call and gain a ton of cred. If POTN doesn't win then he can say I guess he didn't take to the dirt and everyone will forget he even mentioned it in a few months. Not alot of risk with huge career upside if he is correct.
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One of the new pieces of info from Thorograph this year is the concept that synthetic on dirt performances that are new tops tend to be one and done almost without fail. It doesn't mean a regression for a subsequent start is not enough to win a second in a row but the bottom falls out by the third hence very it is very unlikely by these stats that a triple crown from POTN is to follow even if he does win Saturday. Interestingly enough TGH is playing against IWR to win for the same reasons. The third on dirt after a synthetic base is supposed to be a Big Brown Belmont according to their research this year. The multimedia package is $15 bucks for the Derby and Oaks and is really a great watch/read this year.