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Originally Posted by docicu3
One of the new pieces of info from Thorograph this year is the concept that synthetic on dirt performances that are new tops tend to be one and done almost without fail. It doesn't mean a regression for a subsequent start is not enough to win a second in a row but the bottom falls out by the third hence very it is very unlikely by these stats that a triple crown from POTN is to follow even if he does win Saturday. Interestingly enough TGH is playing against IWR to win for the same reasons. The third on dirt after a synthetic base is supposed to be a Big Brown Belmont according to their research this year. The multimedia package is $15 bucks for the Derby and Oaks and is really a great watch/read this year.
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I was thinking the same thing and my brother had mentioned that the other day too about IWR might regress after two huge starts on the dirt after the synthetics. If there's anytime for him to throw a clunker in on the dirt it would be here. I just have this weird feeling that its going to be bombs away in the derby this year.