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Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
I always whine about beyers, but I am going to whine about 'em again.
For the Belmont, I believe the race should have been between 105-110.
2:27.54
1. - the primary reason being the way the race was ran.
The Beyer is a final time speed figure. Often enough we see paceless Belmonts in which the riders attempt to save plenty for the finish. Not this time. We witnessed as fast a pace as you would want for 12 furlong 3yos. By running fast early they almost guaranteed a fast final time comparitive to other historical Belmonts.
2. - Comparing a recent historical Belmont = Rags to Riches and Curlin got a 107 beyer in their SLOW 2:28.75 race. Even Beyer would admit that the R2R Belmont was so slow because of the way the pace was run. The finish in that race was in fact very very fast. However a 107 for that race is a perversion of a pure final time figure into the realm of "performance figures" which the Beyer is not. 2009 Belmont's track was much faster but the track speed is NOT the primary cause of that difference. Whether or not 107 was wayyy too high for R2R's Belmont, Summer Bird should have scored higher than R2R.
You have to fudge a figure here and it has to be done with common sense, and historical comparison.
This was a relatively fast Belmont. No doubt about it. I don't care what Summer Bird got in the past.
You have to start with a very high Beyer figure and then lower it according to how fast the track was.
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So do you also believe that Jazil should have got about a 110 figure in his Belmont? He ran almost the same time as Summer Bird and I don't think the track was anywhere near as fast.
Beyers at seldom run distances are largely useless and every dirt Beyer has the chance it will be heavily impacted by pace. The 100 for this year is probably right while the higher figure for Rags and Curlin was one that was fudged to account for the slow pace (which is something that should either be consistently done or never done rather than done selectively).