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Originally Posted by nomad
I don't use Beyers but I have read his books and have tremendous respect for him.
I'm an old timer. I still use speed ratings & consider variants. When I handicap, the Beyer figures are rarely a consideration. I have noticed they are not far off from the figures I use. They are supposed to figure track pars for you. They don't. If they were so good, they would give you a winner more than 1/3 of the time, which is what they claim. Morning line favorite also gives you 1/3 winners. You can't make money like that.
Bottom line for me is that the Beyers are throw outs 2/3 of the time, just like morning lines.
Does that make sense?
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I think that you're skipping a step here. Favorites win 1/3 of the time as everybody knows. Due to the widespread availability of Beyer numbers, horses that have run the highest figure on the page of PP's, or their personal best figure in their last race, tend to become favorites. So it's not that "Beyer claims 1/3 winners", it's more like "The best Beyer pick, as a favorite, wins 1/3 of the time."