seriously race flow is awesome, and I didn't mean to get far off topic.
JESSICA
one of the "Traps" i see with race flow is once in a while mistaking the "bad horses" for being "against the flow". - like if the worst horses happen to be 1-2-3-4 for the race (which isn't that rare in a classy distance turf race)
and all those 4 quit - exactly like they should quit with their lack of talent - then you have to be careful about saying that the race flow was so favorable to those off the pace. It could still be, but what I am saying is that you always look at who is doing the quitting , not just where they happen to be bunched. The same visa-versa idea happens occasionally in dirt sprints where all the good horses happen to be 1-2-3-4 except maybe one good animal with a breathing or pallate problem that always quits.
Another thing to watch out for is giving undue credit to the rank horse or the knucklehead jockey who moves prematurely during the "rest period" before the last move. Yes, that killed his chances, but it is also easy to look great if you move early, and it is easy to blame a jockey and expect that next-out smooth trip. I think Mine That Bird was handled well by FATs and others because they noted the split fractions during the premature move and the raw times agreed with the race flow charts and the visual interpretations.
yet another , tricky situation is a kickback-heavy track such as turfway or woodbine. Anytime kickback is a factor you always have to watch the head on and the pan and try to form an opinion of whether the jockeys are riding wider. This is really less of a (direct) relationship to race flow.
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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Actually, without having watched her race, I thought that JT got all the worst of it, making the 1st move in what turned out to be a 3 move race. I've seen enough of these types of charts (they're probably the most prevalent in turf races) to know that when the flow is against it, there's nothing a horse can do.
I have to watch it again but off the chart I don't like SS' race. Not only because of Kent's move but it appears that Take the Points also 'moved' before him at a key point. SS appears to have gotten the best trip of the pace setters in a race that held well.
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