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Originally Posted by parsixfarms
Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.
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The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.
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Originally Posted by Kasept
Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.
And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.
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Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?