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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Maybe the problem, then, PHil, is what I've been alluding to all along: that the METHODOLOGY is flawed. Since these aren't time trials, with horses running individually or restricted to lanes, maybe the 'fastest' notion in terms of a number is not the way to go. If so many SLOW horses are winning on synthetics, then, I know that if I were a trainer or owner, I'd get my stock over there and win a whole bunch of races with my fast dirt horses. That this isn't happening sort of works against the methodology, don't you think?
I mean, arguing that these horses are SLOW is like the learned Jesuits of Galileo's era arguing for an Aristotelian view of the world because the CHURCH told them to save that view at all cost. What exactly is the excuse for all the BEYERITES here continuing to argue that these horses are SLOW? Time for a paradigm shift when your theory leads to ridiculous results.
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Beyer's methodology is flawed in that the projection method has allowed the person in charge of assigning the number at each specific track too much leverage in massaging the numbers to make them "fit" what they think should have happened. If a number comes up "too fast" or "too slow" they allow themselves the liberty of splitting the variant multiple times to move the number. That being said, even if the numbers were accurate, it's up to the handicapper to determine how the prior trip affected the number and what today's trip will project. Betting speed figures, even good ones, blind is a road to the poor house- we agree on that. However, what they are supposed to do is separate the contenders from the pretenders. If a trip horse stepping up in class has never run a race within 5 lengths of a winning one for said new level, is he worth a bet at 3-1? 5-1? 10-1? 20-1? None whatsoever?
The problem I have with polytrack is with horses like Fatal Bullet- a horse I happen to like quite a bit having met the owner & trainer and the horse. He is a remarkably good horse on synthetics, obviously, with a record of 8 wins and 2 seconds in 10 starts including a great 2nd in last year's BC Sprint behind an absolute beast. The problem is, he can't even stand up on real dirt. His last two starts on dirt he's gone off at 5-1 and 6-1 and has been beaten a combined 34 lengths even though his early speed should work well on supposedly speed biased real dirt. How is this stuff supposed to be a replacement for dirt when the best horses in the world on poly can't run on real dirt? Conversely, Fabulous Strike, unquestionably one of the world's best sprinters- and beat Fatal Bullet like a drum at Saratoga on real dirt- clearly has problems on synthetic. There are very few Einsteins that perform admirably on both surfaces and a lot more Fatal Bullets and Fabulous Strikes.