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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I think speed figures are one small piece of the puzzle, no more, no less. What percentage of races are won by the horse who has run the highest speed figure? I bet it's a relatively small percent. It's probably around 30% or less.
Don't get me wrong. Even though I think speed figures are only one piece of the puzzle, I still believe that if a person had access to accurate speed figures and this person was one of the only people using speed figures, this person would have a big edge. But in this day and age, everyone has access to speed figures. Horses with the highest speed figures are usually over-bet. In a game with 16% vig, I think it's pretty tough to get an edge focusing on the same info as everyone else.
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You're using an argument that is not applicable here. Using figures to bet the races is completely different than what you did. You overrated a slow horse. You overrated the trouble he had, you exagerated his talents, and then ignored his lack of talent. The figure mattered and you didn't want to admit that it disproved your assessment.
You were wrong before and wrong now. No big deal. I'm publically wrong day after day. But, when proven wrong, you need to accept it...and move on. At least you better in this game.