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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You're using an argument that is not applicable here. Using figures to bet the races is completely different than what you did. You overrated a slow horse. You overrated the trouble he had, you exagerated his talents, and then ignored his lack of talent. The figure mattered and you didn't want to admit that it disproved your assessment.
You were wrong before and wrong now. No big deal. I'm publically wrong day after day. But, when proven wrong, you need to accept it...and move on. At least you better in this game.
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I have no problem admitting when I am wrong. I am wrong several times a week. I admit to that. Many of my losing bets are from overrating horses. I overrate horses all the time. I think we all do.
With this particular horse (Cowboy Gets Even), I may have overrated his talent. It is quite possible. But it also possible that the horse got hurt in that race (the race he won) and that is why he only has two works in the last 7 weeks and that is why he ran a weak race next time out. We'll never know for sure. If he takes the next 6 months off and comes back and turns into a stakes horse, then I will think that I was probably right about him. If he takes 6 months off and he is still no good, then I will think that I was probably wrong about him.