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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
So, essentially, and a bit more succinctly, you're basically saying that you had to do a whole lot of work in order to UNDO the damage done by the figure.  Well done. |
Did absolutely zero work at all.
1.) I would have studied post position stats for every winter track anyway. I do it every year.
2.) I would have a pace figure for that race anyway.
3.) I would have watched the race and noticed her obvious tough trip.
There was no damage done by the figure anymore than there was damage done to her naked form - because her naked form shows her losing by more than 13 lengths to Jody Slew.
You can't even attempt to quantify how much trouble she had with exactitude - but obviously the vicious pace and incredibly bad trip in tandem caused her to stop to a walk in the final 1/4 mile after running a monster race to the pace call.
I think sane handicapper draws a line through that race ... they also draw a line through her flop at SA on Pro-Ride two back ... that leaves the Frizette as the lone race on her form as a true gauge of her ability.
She won a Grade 1 with a 89 Beyer going a mile in just career start #2 - with healthy progression from age 2 to 3 .. that places her true race in the mid 90's.
In hindsight, I guess I should have taken into consideration that Pletcher's barn is red hot this year and was not red hot when she won the Frizette last year. I think the seemingly invincible Amen Hall also found that final 1/8th a struggle.
None of what I thought going in is the point. The point is that you almost never see the form of a horse improve that sharply in 30 days while possibly running no better than she ran at FG when she was crushed by inferior horses. It's not like she was sick or bothered by something in the FG race. It's not like she was juiced in the GP race.