Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.
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Not the last 2.
Musket Man won last year with a 98 and was 3rd in both the Derby and Preakness with 96 and 106.
Recapturetheglory took advantage of a strong inside-speed bias and won the ILLI Derby two years ago with a 102. He only ran a 92 in the KY Derby, but broke from post 18, was wide while pressing a solid pace, only a head back after a mile and gave ground late.
Denis of Cork ran a 88 Beyer in the ILLI Derby against the bias RTG took advantage of .. he ran a 97 in the Derby and 93 in the Belmont when 3rd and 2nd.
Even if you want to go back to Cowtown Cat's bias aided win and Sweetnorthernsaint's big win .. both were repeated .. Cowtown Cat was beaten only 3.5 lengths to Street Sense at Saratoga and got a slightly better number and SNS was 2nd in the Preakness to Bernardini with an identical number two races later.