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Old 04-05-2010, 04:02 PM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles View Post
I would disagree because for the Excelsior, the pace was exactly what I would have predicted for the final time. I don't think it was slow at all for that track, just average.
They were both paceless races on paper, and played that way out on the track. The Excelsior was particularly ugly through the stretch, as evidenced by what visually appeared to be Nite Light "coming again" when he was empty on the turn. To justify the Wood figure, it appears that projections were partly made off of what the Excelsior participants normally run - a tough to justify projection based on the way that race played out on the track.

There were two 7F races that were run in 1:21 and change, and NY-bred MSW horses cut a 44 and change half, so the track was not slow. The final time of the Wood was the third slowest in the past 14 years; that's largely a function of the early pace. Still, it gets a higher figure than either the Carter or Bay Shore, which were run in pretty representative time. Maybe, we'll have to agree to disagree but I don't think the figures for the two-turn races make sense.
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