Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
The winner of the 3rd was given a 61 after recording 54, 65, 67 his last three, 54 most recent.
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Yeah - and a 74, 70, and 74 in his 3 starts before that.
So, in victory, he was lengths slower than in five of his last 6 races. The 54 was when well beaten on a sloppy sealed track.
Everyone else in that field also went backwards. Some severly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
The winner of the 4th was given a 57 after running seven straight races between 53 and 64.
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Four of his last five races were between 61 and 64 - and his last was a 63. He won by 2+ lengths at 5/2 but still ran a couple lengths worse than normal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
The winner of the 5th was given a 75 after running his career high, a 74, in his previous race. This was start number 17.
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Yes - a 3/1 shot winner improved over his last race by one point when he was beaten a couple lengths at the same class level.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
The winner of the 9th was given a 92 after his last 3 of 51, 82, 89. He did come off a layoff and had some nice 100+ back numbers. The runner up will get an 88, a lifetime top in career start number 19.
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Yeah the winner had obviously returned to ok form ... but he also had a four race stretch of 100, 101, 106, and 99 last year. The 9/1 shot who ran 2nd ran 2 points faster than last time .. and a lot of beaten horses made big backward moves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
Again, all used the same variant, including the Illinois Derby.
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It seems like 1 point was shaved off of the ILL Derby... and since it was longer than those other races and involved more running into head-wind .. shouldn't it be the other way if any?