Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
I think I'd rather listen to people that bet. They are off base on this one. Ask them what the average winning pace time is for 9f at Aqueduct. I guarantee Mike Hushion doesn't have a clue. When you normalize the final time, the average final time for the winner of 9f races in New York are as follows:
Aqu-ID, 73.85
Bel, 74.09
Aqu, 74.69
Sar, 73.89
You think he, or the writer of the article, know that the 6f pace times for 9f races at Aqueduct are routinely the slowest in New York by an average of nearly 4/5ths of a second? I don't track half mile times in routes, but I know the difference would be even greater, more than a full second.
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Putting aside the question of whether Mike Hushion knows what he's doing (the numbers seem to suggest that he does), what are you basing these "averages" on, because the only 9F races at Aqueduct these days seem to be for NY-bred NW1X optional claimers or off-the-turf races, hardly a reasonable comparison. These are graded races that we are talking about. With that in mind, and recognizing that the track was faster than par for Bellamy Road's Wood, here are the fractional splits for the Wood and Excelsior from 2005-09:
2009 Wood: 24.2, 48.0, 1:12:1, 1:49.2
2009 Excelsior: 25.2, 50.3, 1:14.3, 1:50.4
2008 Wood: 22.2, 46.0, 1:11.2, 1:52.1
2009 Excelsior: 23.4, 48.2, 1:13.3, 1:51
2007 Wood: 23.1, 47.1, 1:10.4, 1:49.2
2008 Excelsior: 23.3, 46.3, 1:10.1, 1:48
2006 Wood: 23.0, 46.1, 1:11.0, 1:51.2
2006 Excelsior: 23.2, 46.1, 1:10.3, 1:48.1
2005 Wood: 23.0, 46.0, 1:09.4, 1:47
2005 Excelsior: 24.2, 48.1, 1:12.3, 1:50.2
Based on these splits, I don't know how one can argue that the pace for the races this past weekend were "average"
relative to the class of the horses involved.