Belmont factoids 2000-2009.
Horses that ran in the Derby finished in the money in the Belmont 22 of 31 possible chances. (There was a dead heat for 3rd in the 2008 Belmont.) In 3 years, all 3 horses ITM in the Belmont ran in the Derby, in 6 years 2 did, and in 2002 only 1 did.
7 of the last 10 Belmont winners ran in, but did not win the Derby.
Derby non-winners have finished ITM in the Belmont in 18 of the 31 chances.
Only 9 horses that ran in the Preakness finished ITM in the Belmont.
Only 7 horses that finished ITM in the Preakness finished ITM in the Belmont, and they are a pretty notable group: Point Given, AP Valentine, Funny Cide, Smarty, Afleet Alex, Curlin and Mine That Bird. For those who don't think MTB is special, he is one of only 5 horses since Charismatic to finish ITM in all the Triple Crown races (Funny Cide, Smarty, Afleet Alex, Curlin).
# of horses that skipped the Derby, finished in the money in the Preakness and then finished ITM in the Belmont = 0
So, based on the assumption that 2 of the 3 horses ITM Saturday will have run in the Derby, First Dude is not a "special horse" and we won't have any Sarava or DaTara-like winners, my Tri Box will be: Ice Box, Stately Victor, Make Music for Me and Fly Down.
Caveat...Super Saver is only the third horse since 1996 to win the Derby and not finish in the money in the Preakness (2001 Monarchos 6th, 2006 Barbaro DNF).
To quote the great philosopher Yogi Berra: "Predictions are hard, especially when they are about the future."
Good luck!
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