Derek, I know a lotta players. Guys who really send it in, whales so to speak. None of em I know wants to touch betting this stuff.
I love to play, really love to. So when I say I won't play a particular surface its a bold statement.
I know that Turfway's everyday cards are very cheap and not good to make comparisons on. But if you look at the three big days they've had there since the stuff was put in last fall, you'll see that none of these horses who won ever came back and did squat, other than High Cotton who is the polytrack poster child(and man thats not saying a whole damn lot).
With A City couldn't beat me across the street and he won a biggie.
Check out the winners on Ky Cup day in the 5 stakes in 2005, then check out Lanes End day earlier this year, the winners have never replicated any dirt form ever afterwards. Then the other day was just a disgrace. Flint's filly couldn't go 5f and she airs going two turns. Anyone wanan take bets on how Reigning Court comes back in stakes races on dirt? Etc.
The problem with this stuff is that regardless of what anyone tells you its a dirt replacement surface. Anyone who tries to tell its not is smoking something pretty strong. Until a track decides to have both Poly and Dirt, instead of replacing dirt with poly, it most definitely is a dirt replacement surface.
I watch races like a hawk, I have to, and I know what I'm seeing.
When this stuff first was put in place I WANTED to like it and find edges for handicapping it.
It didn't take long for me to see that unlike dirt(confirmed by the email posted on the other thread by an asst/exercise rider and about 20 folks I've spoken to), that many horses simply hate it and refuse to try.
These bombs who don't figure aren't usually winning because they love it, they are winning because other horses are simply not putting out on it and refuse to try.
I've called Turfway the "parade grounds" since they got this stuff because thats what the races look like. Woodbine has been even worse!!!
You watch these races and they almost never unfold like dirt races with contested paces. They get extremely strung out like a parade, and down the stretch only 1-2 horses are actually moving on it.
It pains me to notbe able to bet a great meet like Keeneland, but there simply isn't any way anyone can bet anything with conviction. You have no idea how they will run on it. Joels theory of only taking 5-1 or better is pretty good, but I'd go so far as to say 10-1. Just look at last Saturday's results in the 5 stakes races on Ky Cup day.
Whats gonna happen is that after this meet, trainers who have run their horses on the stuff who run poorly will simply avoid it like the plague.
I'm all for keeping horses sound and uninjured, no doubt. Anyone whose ever watched training and heard the sickening crack and seen one go down will tell you that you just wanna vomit, for real.
But this past meet at the Spa they ordered the super to have a huge cushion and deeper surface. It worked spendidly and trainers loved it.
Horses are always gonna break down, Johnny V was injured after a grass race, and we all know about Horatio, and about Funfair in the Cup last year.
Its simply unavoidable.
Darrell Vienna in Cali told the DRF reporter that he couldn't understand why they had to install poly. He asked aloud why they coldn't just have a deeper and safer dirt surface.
Thats the very same question that more than one trainer and owner has asked aloud when speaking about it.
I'd like to know why myself, but I already know the answer, theres not as much money in marketing dirt.