[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem with running in the Arlington Million, if you OWN the horse, is that he wouldn't have been able to run in the P Classic. What sane person chooses a million dollar race where he would be, at best, 5-1 over one where he is going to be even money?

To compare Secretariat running in the two final races he ran in is a bit ridiculous. First of all, he had already been syndicated for what was at the time an enormous amount of money. Second of all, the grass races he chose had similar, if not better, purses than the dirt alternatives ( actually the only race he skipped was the JCGC which was also two miles at that time ). He was also 1-2 and 1-5 in the two grass races....hardly comparable to what Lava Man's chances would have been in the Arlington Million.

Look, when I play Gallop Racer I follow your approach in race selection. I choose fun spots to see how my horse stacks up with tough competition. But, real life thoroughbred racing is not a video game, as there is a LOT of money at stake. I also don't think you would be wrong in every situation ( I always thought Azeri running the same boring campaign two years in a row, especially in light of all the other spots she could have run in for more money and prestige, was a bit boring and gutless). However, I think your overall view is haphazard at best and unrealistic. Overall the idea is to find the best spots for horses and your specific ideas of creativity fly in the face of sanity.

I'll start with saying that I don't think Lava Man would have been 5-1 in the Arlington race. He had just come off of back to back dominating wins on the grass at Hollywood. One was a track record performance and the other was over graded stakes winners King's Drama, TH Approval (the same one that just ran Million winner The Tin Man to a tight finish), and Sweet Return. The 106 and 107 figures he earned placed him near the top of the Beyer leaderboard thru that point in the year. In fact, there had only been one race at 10f on grass all year that had a higher figure and that figure was a 108. He clearly was on par with what the best grass runners in the country had been doing. I think 5-2 or maybe 3-1 would have been his price in the race.

Now, after the Pacific Classic, according to the trainer, they seriously flirted with the idea of going in the Hirsch as his next start. That race is $250k as compared to the $500k Goodwood. I think he would have even been favored in the Hirsch. But they decided on going with the Goodwood. I have nothing to base this on other than gut feeling but I bet they just didn't want to face The Tin Man and maybe mess up his perfect record for the year. Is it wrong of them to make the choice they made AND run for more money? No. Is it challenging? No. Is it fun for the fans? No. Why though would they seriously consider the lower pursed Hirsch? I think they put their feet in the water, saw the pool was a little deep, and pulled out. I think the same thing happened with the Million. They chose the safe route. As u call it, the sane one. But again, I say that sometimes, u can't let money dictate your decisions. U have a horse that might be a once in a lifetime for them. They have a chance to really do something special with him. And they chose the safe route. There is an old saying.......u have to DARE to be great. Greatness is not just thrown on u. U have to go out and take it. That's what I wanted to see from Lava Man. Instead, we get fed a steady diet of crap like we are going to see in the Goodwood. The same crap we saw in the Pacific Classic, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the SA Hcp. Let's say he had skipped the Million but did go in the Hirsch and beats The Tin Man. Say he comes back and wins the BC Classic and then finishes off the year winning the Hollywood Turf Cup. I don't think this is an unrealistic scenario. He'd be the older male champion, the turf champion, and the HOY. It shouldn't always be about the money. Especially when they've won over $3.5 million already. Go for history. Hell, he wouldn't have even had to win the Arlington race in order to boost his reputation. A solid showing would have done more for him than winning the Pacific Classic did. The only thing he gained by winning at Del Mar was money. No more respect. Nothing but money.