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Old 08-06-2010, 05:06 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,674
Default 8/6: Saratoga (Day 13-John's Call)

Thursday's Guaranteed P6 card at the Spa was heavily affected by 12-2p rains which took the 4th and 6th off the turf and left the main track sloppy. The afternoon improved as it went along, and a perfect stretch of weather starting Friday will reward those that slogged through the elements yesterday. The racing was actually quite formful as it turned out, and though I tinkered too much with the late P4 play, was able to hit the late P3's with the logicals for $103 and $127. That made up for my ridiculous revision of the P4 to $48 after the second set of SCR's which had Bridgetown off it leaving a nice $480 behind the windows. Uggh... Hope you did OK. Note by the way that NYRA's Thursday P6 seeding resulted in more than $112k invested by sextet seekers...

Great weekend of racing on tap with Quality Road headling the Whitney, a superb betting Test, a short but balanced Honorable Miss and Majesticperfection in the Vanderbilt. Friday's Saratoga action is VERY challenging and could be the kind of day that takes just one hit to score out!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Wall of Worry 7-2: How else do you deal with RudyRod? WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #5 Roaring Belle 4-1: Takes enormous drop; Missed break last.. 8th
Next Best: #4 Money's Sweet 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Dear Marylou 9-2 9th


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Lots of reasons to believe in Mott favorite Avanta, but 8-5 is tough to swallow with Halory Leigh sibling Caribbean Lady dropping in for Pino and potentially live firsters from sharpies like Fawkes, Scherer, Motion and Casse.. Respect the ML choice but use a few in the multis..

Most Likely: #8 Avanta 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #2 Mass Harbor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Maria's Luck 6-1 5th


3rd: Loudonville, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Funny Feeling 5-2: Appears to get perfect set up.. 5th
Best Value: #5 Lisa's Booby Trap 12-1: As Runyon wrote, "A story goes with it".. WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #6 Zermatt 5-1: As good as stablemate at better tote.. 4th


4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Quick to Charm 3-1: Didn't skip beat moving Brown to Maker.. WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #1 Xela 8-1: Suits level and has been sharp for Schettino.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Dantastic 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Hurricane Heat 12-1 7th


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Florida Girl 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Karen's Joy 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 She Wears the Best 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Guiseppina 10-1 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-8
3: 2-4-5-6
4: 1-2
5: 3-4-7

2x4x2x3 = $48


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Doesn't appear to be much mystery to this turf spint for a diploma..

Most Likely: #8 Chardonniere 3-1: Chased Ash Zee last; Zippy drills.. 4th
Next Best: #6 Vinda 7-2: Ouchy-looking but typical effort close enough here.. 9th
Exotics Use: #2e Goldberg entry 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #1e Ribaudo entry 8-1 WON ($25.60)/8th


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

First of back-to-back 3 turn turf marathons..

Most Likely: #3 Ordination 9-5: Lightly raced Clement gelding bested similar at GP.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 More Than Willing 10-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #1 Cheyenne Nation 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ground Frost 3-1 5th


8th: John's Call, 4+, 13f-IT (DD, Super)

Top 3 finishers from last year's edition are signed on here, though Rod Jenkins' Southwest is AE. Hot Attfield and capable Caramori invade in this excellent specialty event..

Most Likely: #3 Solitaire 5-1: Defender in as good or better form at 5yo.. 8th
Best Value: #7 Coolcullen Times 15-1: Steadily improving for Motion.. 3rd
Next Best: #11 Perfect Shower 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Lignon's Hero 5-1 6th


9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

9-5 favorite Makeminechocolate not nearly as likely price makes out..

Most Likely: #9 Lateday Edition 2-1: Frog with least warts adds Lasix.. WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #1 Lily's Doll 8-1: Saves all the ground; Gets jock upgrade.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Makeminechocolate 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #10 Sister Berta 30-1 9th; #8 Triple Latte 15-1 7th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 9 in 1st/2nd with 1-5-7-8-10 (1x5x4x3 = 60 + 5x1x4x3 = 60 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 8
7: 1-3-5-7
8: 3-6-7-11
9: 1-7-9

1x4x4x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 08-06-2010 at 07:26 PM.
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