Pace projections for the Travers based solely on prior pace figures:
After 6 furlongs (4fs left to go at this point)
Leader: Miner's Reserve (1.25 lengths)
2nd place: A Little Warm (1.25 behind leader)
3rd place: Friend or Foe (3 behind leader)
4th place: Super Saver (4 behind leader)
5th place: First Dude (5 behind leader)
6th place: Trappe Shot (5.5 behind leader)
7th place: Afleet Express (5.75 behind leader)
8th place: Afleet Again (8 behind leader)
9th place: Fly Down (9.5 behind leader)
10th place: Ice Box (10.5 behind leader)
11th place: Admiral Alex (15.5 behind leader)
Obvioulsy - Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm have wildly superior early speed to the rest of this field. Because they avoided a duel last time, and each lollygagged relative to their strong speed .. they stayed on to finish 1-2 at 9fs.
First Dude has all 1's on his form in his last three races and gets blinkers - but he's been setting slowpoke paces on unpressured leads in his last 3. Even though Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm are much faster .. those two will be under strong restraint and there's no way FD will be 5 back early like his numbers say.
There's also no way Admiral Alex will be 15+ back after six furlongs - he will have to work MUCH harder to stay in a competitive spot this time.. that should impact his performance negatively and he'll be lucky to run back to that 87 he ran last time.
The distance and pace should perfectly suit Fly Down. He's my pick.
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