Quote:
Originally Posted by pointman
What I don't get is why some trainer does not realize this and give some quality horses a solid campaign. Are they afraid to be criticized now for running their horses too much?
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I'm not a believer in bounce theory other than when a horse with some existing physical issues runs a huge race. IMO most figure fluctuations are related to trip, bias, pace, randomness, reversion to mean, etc....
However, I think it has always been well known that a long hard campaign will eventually wear a horse down or cause injuries to accumulate and sideline a horse. To some extent that's what form cycles are all about.
Aside from the influence of the Sheet and Thorograph players on the thinking about race spacing, bouncing etc... another factor contributing to the easier campaigns has been the Breeder's Cup.
The Breeder's Cup races are very rich, prestigious races and count for more in year end Eclipse Award voting than any other race during the year (other than perhaps the Derby) because of the depth of quality.
That motivates trainers and owners to aim their best horses for those late season races. Given that they know a hard campaign could cause their top horses to tail off or get injured by year end, they tend to look for easier more well spaced campaigns in a effort to keep their horses very fresh and more likely to be able to fire a peak on the right day.