Quote:
Originally Posted by PatCummings
It might look that way on paper, but you can't deny a few things...
Toss his race in Dubai without Lasix and an effort in the Clark where something clearly went wrong, and the horse is 7 for 7. He does have the third off angle going for him and he gutted back after Musket Man took a narrow lead in the Monmouth Cup. He's fresh and is out of a BC Distaff longshot winner. He'll get pace sit off of which hasn't been the case in his two starts this season.
All that being said, he'll be at least 30-1, but isn't without some angles.
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It's easy to get creative when discussing a horse's chances, but you can't deny a few things...
Musket Man, while a nice horse hasn't really shown a huge desire to win this year and missed significant training time prior to the Monmouth Cup. Etched has beaten a field of 4 and 6 this year. He's not going to be sitting a perfect trip off of Chirac or Great Debater in the Classic.
You're right, he'll be a big price, but he should be. I just don't see how it is possible that he runs early and hangs on late.