Quote:
|
Originally Posted by pmayjr
Sorry if this question has been wheeled out pover and over again every month, but I'm curious to know 2 things about you-
Based on all the picks and selections that I see on here for upcoming races:
1) Do you guys handicap races the night/morning before the races, or is there anyone else like me that doesn't touch a DRF until about 10 minutes to post time?
I can't ever put in my 2 cents (except on BC and TC days) unless you asked me about 5 minutes before race time. I wanna know all the factors going right beofre races time. Track condition, scratches, odds,potential payoffs, everything. Morning Lines can be too misleading for that.
2) What kinda of betting do you guys do?
I usually do Exacta and Tri Box's, and WP bets on longshots. I don't usually touch Supers, or Doubles, and Pick "#'s"
3) What do you guys usually do better with? Do you guys have better success betting the Belmonts, Gulfstreams, the more established tracks, or the crap tracks? Or do you have a style that seems to work well for both (don't give a pompass answer to this pelase)?
I say this time and time again, but I do so much better betting 5k claimers at Mountaineer than I ever do at Belmont. Longshots pop everywhere, but at crappier tracks I think they hit more often.
4) any betting advice... on anything for me? We have some of the best minds in the sport in this forum. Your advice is valued...
|
Good thread...
The first and foremost rule on gambling on horses I have is you have to know when to pass on a race. Don't be a chalk eating weasel. This is a high risk/high reward gamble, betting a box tri costing $12 to win $17 is not a wise manuever and races like that are a pass.
You have to determine "value". Value is a subjective term, GM's in baseball toss it around all the time. In the end, would it be better to sign Barry Zito for $15m/per or sign Ted Lilly for $6m/per who has the same relative perpherial numbers and has pitched consistently in a difficult division in the AL East? In horse racing terms, the bet to win on Zito is 8-5 and Lilly is 5-1.
Put me down for $100 win on Lilly then if I believe in him and can come up with a plausible scenario where he wins the "race". Thats the difference between winning $3,000 or losing $100 on the chalk. I'd rather risk $100 to win $3,000 than risk $100 to win $1,300. Risk vs Reward. Yesterday's Champagne was a great example. No Biz like Showbiz was hammered down to 8-5. Granted his maiden was an impressive win, but when you look deeper, his times didnt match favorably, his pedigree is suspect for a 2 yr old and the logical choice was Scat Daddy at almost 3-1. That was robbery yesterday. Glad to hear others saw that yesterday (Joel Cunningham being one of them) and jumped all over that. I singled Scat in my NTRA pick 4 and threw down a c note or two on him to win and cashed on both ends. Now I can pad my gambling bankroll going into the Breeders Cup and the holiday season WHICH IS HUGE.
I will make any bet that has a reasonable chance to make money. You need to play where you see glaring mistakes by others, like the Champagne. Another good example is the 2003 Belmont which had Funny Cide going for the Triple Crown. Empire Maker was the best horse in that run for the TC. Funny Cide however clearly made his mark and won the Derby and Preakness.
Everyone and their mothers were in love with Funny Cide and rightfully so. But, love has no place at the betting window. The logical choice going 1.5 miles was CLEARLY Empire Maker and he went off at 2-1. Funny Cide was 6-5 I think. Be that as it may, I cashed a win ticket on EM. Did I want to see FC win the TC? Absolutely. But I enjoyed the $1500 I pulled down on EM more than the sentiment a win by FC would have created.
Good luck out there.