I'm going to go with the Smarty camp here. This was an undefeated animal who won most efforts by open lengths. Birdstone was a 3 time G1 winner and received the gift of the pace duel and Stewie's ride. Even with that, Smarty was 6 lengths clear of the 3rd.
That said, I think Alex would have won the Derby if he had stayed wider. The rail was dead all week at Churchill and Alex made his move down inside. Watch the tape when Rose reaches even terms with the other two inside the 1/8th pole. Rose goes with the right handed whip, Alex goes in a little and slows.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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