Hadn't had the opp to chime in here and haven't read the whole thread, but it would seem pretty clear that Smarty Jones was by far closer to winning a crown than Afleet Alex.
While I consider any dual Classic winner who didn't win the third a "near miss", it's harder to make cases for those that don't win the Derby or Preakness than those that win the first two legs. Without the pressure of the three week lead-up to the Belmont, or even the pressure of going into the Preakness as the Derby winner, it's difficult to know how trainer and jock react. You also don't know who might have lined up in the races with different outcomes, etc.. The scenario of going into the Preakness with a Derby-winning Alex is totally different than that of them going in off the near miss at Louisville, etc..
Smarty Jones was yards away from a crown and would certainly have been a winner under a slightly revised race script that gets Elliott to avoid the harassment of Solis and Bailey so early and so long.
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