Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss
They did crawl at the end and Sway Away got a nice setup. But I think it's the kind of race he'll get a lot out of. His trainer was 6% off this type of layoff the last 5 years, with an ROI of $0.73. He showed enough speed as a 2 year old to think he'll be able to stay a lot closer than he did today as the distances increase and if we're talking about the Derby, he's the one I want out of the race.
The Factor is obviously talented, but it's hard for me to believe he's going to stretch out much farther effectively and how much longer is Baffert going to be able to keep him sound?
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All of facebook was in love with Sway Away's race - I don't disagree that he could move forward .. but closing sprinters with perfect setups have a very poor record in Derby preps - where The Factor - if he stays healthy - will almost be assured of cakewalks in his final preps.
A horse like Giacomo was everybody's standout #1 Derby prospect in California going into his 3yo year. He got wired by Going Wild at 9fs. Got wired badly by Consolidator going 8.5fs. And the Santa Anita Derby was a merry-go-round race with Roger Stein's General John B 2nd at like 87/1.
A horse like Lookin At Lucky didn't even belong on the same racetrack with Sidney's Candy at 8.5 and 9fs last year - everyone wants to finish in those races. If The Factor is healthy - he could Balto Star them in his next two