Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I've gone through all three races and I'm against Cape Blanco, Stacelita and Treasure Beach.
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I think you're too exact in extrapolating the European running lines of these horses with the way they will likely run here in an American-style race.
Look at the form and running styles of previous Million winners Debussy and Powerscourt. In Europe, both liked to sit up on or near the lead and tended to be one-paced in the latter stages, seemingly without significant "turn of foot". However, in the States, both horses settled off the early pace and made dramatic moves to finish strongly. I expect more of the same, at least from Treasure Beach. Jamie Spencer rode Powerscourt, so he ought to know his way around, but at the same time, he seems brain dead, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him botch the ride on Cape Blanco, with his past success on the lead. Settled off the pace, Cape Blanco would probably be more a terror in this field than he is now.
Another point, whereas Treasure Beach may perhaps prefer 12f (he was handy enough to win at 7f twice as a 2yo though), what American hope really wants the 10f? Don't really see any in the Secretariat. In a cleanly run race, he probably only has the French horse to worry about.