[Kasept]

With Christmas in the rear view, winter racing began in earnest Monday as Santa Anita kicked off with an enormous bang. The largest Opening Day crowd in nearly 20 years thronged Arcadia with 4 stakes and several big prices helping to make the start of the 2011-12 season a smash. The SA P6 carried over to Thursday with a $148k pot to chase, a figure that could result in a seven figure pool. The wagering Monday went OK despite misses in the late P4 and P5 as triples in the Malibu ($120) and Sir Beaufort ($48) more than balanced out the afternoon's punts. Mr. Commons lived up to expectations by outclassing the Sir Beaufort field, while The Factor made the most of his outside draw and some adventageous circumstances in the Malibu.

While I had no complaints with Rothko's runner-up effort as my top choice, I thought his $5.60-1 tab at post time was quite generous at post time and I loaded up more than usual on the front end with him. Rothko was certainly impeded a bit when Centralinteligence abruptly halted and I thought Nakatani's brief indecision at the eighth pole made it impossible to engage The Factor the way he needed to in order to win. But Martin Garcia rode The Factor as well as he possibly could and helped provide Bob Baffert with what had been a glaringly elusive G1 on his resume.

New York's deep winter calendar begins peeling away Wednesday with the post-Holiday break ending and the inner track meet getting the long-anticipated purse account boost. The second race at Aqueduct marks the first particularly eye-widening offering, as open company Maiden Specials run for a $65,000 satchel. While the overall quality of the fields will take more time to morph, field size is notably fuller at a glance immediately with the pre-SCR P6 sequence boasting races with 9 (3), 10 (2) and 11 (1). Even though 4 of those 6 races are comprised of claiming types worth $10-15k, the volume will help provide larger payouts within races and in multis. On top of the bulkier fields, there will also be the positive payoff impact of the delayed superexotic takeout which sees a reduction to 24% today in the biggest multi-race and multi-horse bets.

Hope everyone is enjoying the Holiday Season! Swing at the Santa Anita carryover Thursday and a little action today at the Big A...


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting set for $10k. Johnny Campo Jr. has won 3 of the first 9 he has sent out for the winter meet and he moved favorite -- Perfect Drive -- up off Chris Englehart. Go figure..

Most Likely: #7 Perfect Drive 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Missle Motor 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Brazen Kat 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Swinging At Siro's 5-1 2nd


7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

With SCR of POE #1 Marquet Rebel, add Superfecta to menu..

Most Likely: #5 Metrology 7-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Coosada 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Best Actor 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1a Unbridled Danger 6-1 8th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Tough to argue with solid race Juddmonte's Lunar Victory ran this strip while debuting in US 12/7. Repeat wins..

Most Likely: #8 Lunar Victory 2-1 ($3.60)
Next Best: #10 Hangover Kid 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Living Right 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Idle American 5-1 4th


9th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

This is quite a rag tag bunch..

Most Likely: #6 Maspeth Princess 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #5 La Jolla Lu 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Sweet Adeline 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Mojito Mint 5-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-5-7-8
7: 2-4-5
8: 8-10
9: 2-3-4-5-6

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$.50 Pick 4 (7-4-8-6) Paid $19.10


Good luck!
Steve