Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Fortunately, at least for my personal interests, the weight frequently seems to become an anchor in the Belmont.
The Derby winner always gets way over rated coming out of that race. Orb is really no different.
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i disagree about them always being way overrated. some have been felt to be fluke winners who couldn't follow up their derby victory. i think a lot of people think that odds of it happening are increasing because it's been so long-but that has nothing to do with it, just like flipping a head or a tail will be 50-50 no matter how many times heads came up in previous flips.
i think the winning a tc goal is overrated. some of our greatest horses didn't do it-and some of the tc winners aren't great. they did something that few have done but they aren't necessarily great as a result.
when one looks at horses like the bid, native dancer, etc, you look at some modern horses and go yikes, they surely can't do it.
last year with i'll have another, everyone pretty much awarded him the prize leading in to the belmont. his opponents looked weak, he looked a shoo-in. but i told my husband, something will stop him. didn't expect it to be an injury and retirement, but i just felt that the jinx or gremlin or what have you would prevent him winning.