So, that was a crappy beat. If 7-1 Sakonnet Point holds on in the 5th, I'm looking at a $748 Pick 4, which would have been clutch, but if 18-1 Currency Union holds in the 4th also, I'm looking at a $6k-7k meet-making Pick 4 payout. Instead, both horses got nailed in the final yards and I got squadouche. It's frustrating to say the least, but as a daily handicapper, you have to take solace in the fact that as long as you're all around it like that and your opinions are good, you're going to cash more tickets than you tear.
Saturday, July 27
Late Pick 4:
8th: #1 Plainview is a remarkable horse on his best day. He routinely sets very fast paces on the grass and keeps going and has been a terrific claim by Greg DiPrima. He had no business in the Manhattan, but it was worth a shot with a sharp horse and now he cuts back to his regular element. He has to shake clear of #10 Sarava's Dancer, but I'm pretty sure he'll be in front going into the 1st turn and he's always tough to catch once that happens. #2 Sachem Spirit has several competitive turf races and though he comes into this off a 203-day layoff, he's gotten a positive switch to Clement's barn and is versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. #3 Eternal Ruler ran a career-top BSF and tied his top TG last out and has since returned to post a best-of-50 4-furlong local turf breeze (the next fastest work was by Teen Pauline, who ran .93 slower). #4 Majestic Raffy returned with a really good effort two back, then got stuck behind a slow pace last out and gets a big rider switch to Castellano today. #5 Kris Royal looked like a real runner with his local maiden-breaker last summer, rallying with ease from off tepid fractions to score. He hasn't quite developed into the star he looked like that day, but his last was OK and he goes out 2nd off the bench for the always dangerous Charlie Lopresti. I've had enough of #8 Film Shot, who's coming off a no-excuse loss at 3-2 when loose on a soft pace. His best races have come close to the pace and if he tries to chase Plainview today, I don't think he'll be around at the finish.
9th: The awesome rivalry between #2 Stephanie's Kitten and #5 Centre Court is renewed in this small but high-quality Diana and it's tough to go against them. I'll use #1 Dream Peace as a B, since she's the only one who has competitive numbers with the top two, but it seems like her best races come on moist ground.
10th: This edition of the Jim Dandy looks like a two-horse race on paper. #5 Palace Malice would be the biggest beneficiary of a moderate pace, while #8 Mylute would be most likely to capitalize on fast fractions. There are a few others who are developing into useful 2nd half 3YOs, but none I think can yet beat either of the top two on their best.
11th: #10 Christiesborntorun looks like the clear horse to beat. He's dropping steeply in class, but he's the fastest horse in the race and Jason Servis is a powerhouse in these low-to-mid claiming turf sprints. He also gets a positive rider switch to Lezcano. I usually don't like horses like #9 Shmooz Talker who have been in good form on dirt now seemingly randomly switching to turf, but he's the rare sort who can and has run close to equally well on both surfaces; he's too logical for me to dismiss. #3 Writingonthewall, dropping for Repole and #6 Yield Bogey, who has multiple competitive turf sprints, are others I have to use. I'll also take #5 Brown Indian going out for the ATM that is George Weaver. He wasn't as good as Yield Bogey last time, but he has competitive races last year and I think he'll step forward in his 2nd start off the layoff. #11 Shotgun City is a little interesting just because of the barn switch from Persaud to Maker, but it's generally very tough to win 1st time on turf against a field of hard-knocking, experienced turf sprinters like this group.
$.50 1,2,3,4,5/1,2,5/5,8/3,5,6,9,10 $75
$1 1,2,3,4,5/2,5/5,8/10 $20
Race 8 $5 WIN 4
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