[ateamstupid]

Sunday, July 28

The early Pick 4 looks just about impossible, so let's take a look at the late sequence.

8th: It's hard to envision a scenario where this pace doesn't get very fast for the level. Time On My Hands is cutting back, but she's always had sprint speed, Colorme Kitten was close to a very fast pace last out, Pumpkin Lane adds blinkers, Midnight Rider has been involved in quick paces her whole career, Sharon Spaghetti rushed up and set a fast first 1/4 after breaking slowly last out, Honorable Pass and Maid for Joe are both consistently involved on the front end. So I'm left with the two favorites, #7 Rodinia and #12 Top Tier Lass, to benefit from that fast pace. This is the kind of race where I usually like to take a first-time turf horse, but I just can't make a case for any of the pedigrees of the horses switching surfaces. Top Tier Lass's last race wins this and her career top came sprinting on the Saratoga turf. The concern is that she lost at 8-5 in her return race dropping for Pletcher, but she was 3-wide and chased an OK horse on a slow pace. She was claimed by sharp connections out of that effort. Rodinia gets a positive barn switch to Servis and should get the good setup she needs to get it done at this distance. I'll use #1 Time On My Hands and #11 Maid for Joe as C's.

9th: Nothing clever here either. #1 Midnight Taboo opts for an N1X instead of Friday's Curlin after reportedly going toe-to-toe with Pletcher superstar in the making Cross Traffic in the mornings. #4 Cary Street completely turned his life around since adding blinkers, following up a $10k N3L claiming win at Calder with two very good runner-ups behind stakes 3-year-olds Power Broker and Perfect Title. He also doesn't face a lot of other early speed in here. #7 Norumbega adds Lasix, already has competitive races and may be better going two turns.

10th: There are four major players in this really good edition of the Amsterdam, two speeds and two closers. #2 Forty Tales is probably a touch better than #3 Declan's Warrior, but he also had a better trip than that one in the Woody Stephens, keeping him inside and forcing him to alter course late. #1 Mentor Cane was incredible in his 7/6 return race, attending and then setting a fast pace and still drawing away to win eased up. He comes into this with a sharp Wednesday half-mile breeze. NJ-bred #6 Rainbow Heir is undefeated and very fast, the issue is whether or not a speed duel develops between him, Mentor Cane and Salutos Amigos, as well as maybe Cat Five Hurricane.

11th: #9 Spin Chief (A) ran pretty well in his debut for a horse who broke several lengths slow and was barely in the picture turning for home, flying late to get up for fourth and nearly grab third. The first two finishers that day each came back to win with double-digit BSF improvements and a clean break makes Spin Chief the horse to beat today. #3 Thingamajigger (A) is cutting back, dropping in class and may find himself setting a slow pace. #1 Magnificentmillion (A) took a lot of money for Rudy/Dubb in his debut, has done no running in two starts, but drops in class and they may have tipped their hand a bit with his good half-mile breeze on Wednesday. #4 My Teddy Bear (B) put in his best dirt race since his debut in a troubled trip last out, also drops. #7 Without Regard (B) was dreadful as the 3-2 favorite last out, but was claimed by Jacobson out of there and will win this if he can get him back to anything close to his debut. Again, will his magic be the same at Saratoga? The jury's still out.

$.50 7,12/1,4,7/1,2,3,6/1,3,4,7,9 $60
$.50 1,11/1,4,7/2,3/1,3,9 $18
$.50 7,12/1,4,7/2,3/1,3,9 $18
Race 11 $4 WIN 9